Pro League · Regular Season - 15
Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC · King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Al-Nassr host Al Shabab on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Al-Nassr 63%, draw 22%, Al Shabab 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al-Nassr €7.4M, Al Shabab €2.2M.
- Al-Nassr's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 over 180 days.
- Al-Nassr have won their last 5 matches.
- Al Shabab are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Al-Nassr goals first.
- 1–110%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 3–17%
- 1–07%
- 3–07%
- Other scores51%
Team Elo: Al-Nassr 2220 · Al Shabab 1952
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al-Nassr · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Elite) · Elo 2446
Al Shabab · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2062
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al-Nassr
3rd in Saudi Pro League · 28 pts from 11
- 2 NovWPakhtakor AFC Champions League2220
- 29 OctWAl Kholood Saudi Pro League2243
- 23 OctWAl-Faisaly FC Saudi Pro League2174
- 20 OctWNEOM Saudi Pro League2222
- 12 OctWNeftchi AFC Champions League2205
Al Shabab
10th in Saudi Pro League · 14 pts from 11
- 30 OctWAl-Ahli Jeddah Saudi Pro League1916
- 22 OctWAl-Fateh Saudi Pro League1869
- 19 OctDAl-Faisaly FC Saudi Pro League1842
- 11 OctWAl Taawon Saudi Pro League1830
- 12 SepDAl-Fayha Saudi Pro League1839
Season outlook
From the Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Nassr | 28 /11 | 72.0 | 7% | 94% | 0% | 3rd |
| Al Shabab | 14 /11 | 44.6 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Al-Nassr: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Angelos Postecoglou plays) · Al Shabab: balanced profile (how Thomas Letsch plays)