Pro League · Regular Season - 14
Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Fri 20 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC · King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Al-Nassr host Al-Qadisiyah FC on Fri 20 Nov 2026 (Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Al-Nassr 35%, draw 29%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 36%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al-Nassr €7.2M, Al-Qadisiyah FC €9.3M.
- Draw chance 29%, above the Saudi Pro League average of 23% this round.
- Al-Nassr's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 over 180 days.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 over 180 days.
- Al-Nassr have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Al-Nassr goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–08%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Al-Nassr 2226 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 2253
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al-Nassr · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2452
Al-Qadisiyah FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2424
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al-Nassr
3rd in Saudi Pro League · 28 pts from 11
- 2 NovWPakhtakor AFC Champions League2226
- 29 OctWAl Kholood Saudi Pro League2248
- 23 OctWAl-Faisaly FC Saudi Pro League2179
- 20 OctWNEOM Saudi Pro League2228
- 12 OctWNeftchi AFC Champions League2210
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2nd in Saudi Pro League · 28 pts from 12
- 2 NovWAl-Gharafa AFC Champions League2211
- 29 OctWAl Riyadh Saudi Pro League2244
- 26 OctDAl Sadd AFC Champions League2123
- 23 OctLAl-Hilal Saudi FC Saudi Pro League2360
- 20 OctWAl Taawon Saudi Pro League2233
Season outlook
From the Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Nassr | 28 /11 | 74.4 | 9% | 95% | 0% | 2nd |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | 28 /12 | 73.3 | 6% | 94% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Al-Nassr: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Angelos Postecoglou plays) · Al-Qadisiyah FC: possession-based (how Brendan Rodgers plays)