Pro League · Regular Season - 8
Al-Nassr 3–0 Al Diriyah
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh
Al-NassrTeam 2162Al DiriyahTeam 1962We gave Al-Nassr 57% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 57% · 24% · 19%(Al-Nassr · draw · Al Diriyah)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 3–0 had 6%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Al-Nassr €7.6M, Al Diriyah €4.3M.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al-Nassr
3rd in Saudi Pro League · 16 pts from 7
- 15 SepLAl Ain AFC Champions League2192
- 12 SepDAl Khaleej Saihat Saudi Pro League2196
- 9 SepWAbha Saudi Pro League2173
- 5 SepLAl-Ittihad FC Saudi Pro League2228
- 28 AugWAl Taawon Saudi Pro League2211
Al Diriyah
8th in Saudi Pro League · 11 pts from 7
- 13 SepDAbha Saudi Pro League2050
- 9 SepWAl-Fateh Saudi Pro League2028
- 3 SepLAl-Qadisiyah FC Saudi Pro League2063
- 29 AugWAl-Ettifaq Saudi Pro League1934
- 26 AugDAl Kholood Saudi Pro League1981
Season outlook
From the Pro League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Nassr | 16 /7 | 69.3 | 5% | 79% | 0% | 3rd |
| Al Diriyah | 11 /7 | 56.0 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al-Nassr · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2449
Al Diriyah · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 2319
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · shot-heavy
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.