Pro League · Regular Season - 13
Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Ar Rass
Al-Hazm host Al-Nassr on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Al-Hazm 9%, draw 16%, Al-Nassr 75%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al-Hazm €633K, Al-Nassr €8.1M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Saudi Pro League matchday 13: 513 points.
- Draw chance 16%, below the Saudi Pro League average of 23% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Al-Hazm goals first.
- 0–211%
- 0–39%
- 1–29%
- 1–38%
- 1–18%
- 0–17%
- Other scores48%
Team Elo: Al-Hazm 1702 · Al-Nassr 2215
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al-Hazm · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1880
Al-Nassr · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 2473
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al-Hazm
12th in Saudi Pro League · 10 pts from 11
- 22 OctDAl-Fayha Saudi Pro League1726
- 19 OctLAl-Hilal Saudi FC Saudi Pro League1681
- 15 OctLAl-Fateh Saudi Pro League1710
- 10 OctDNEOM Saudi Pro League1665
- 11 SepLAl-Ahli Jeddah Saudi Pro League1651
Al-Nassr
3rd in Saudi Pro League · 22 pts from 9
- 20 OctWNEOM Saudi Pro League2230
- 12 OctWNeftchi AFC Champions League2216
- 9 OctWAl Diriyah Saudi Pro League2195
- 15 SepLAl Ain AFC Champions League2192
- 12 SepDAl Khaleej Saihat Saudi Pro League2196
Season outlook
From the Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Hazm | 10 /11 | 31.3 | 0% | 0% | 24% | 14th |
| Al-Nassr | 22 /9 | 71.9 | 10% | 93% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Al-Hazm: balanced profile (how Jalel Kadri plays) · Al-Nassr: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Angelos Postecoglou plays)