Stars League · Regular Season - 10
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Arabi SC
Fri 27 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Al Gharafa Stadium, Doha
Al-Gharafa host Al-Arabi SC on Fri 27 Nov 2026 (Stars League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Al-Gharafa 41%, draw 29%, Al-Arabi SC 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al-Gharafa €1.3M, Al-Arabi SC €810K.
- Home advantage makes Al-Gharafa the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (Stars League): Al-Gharafa rank #3 of 11, Al-Arabi SC #10.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Al-Gharafa goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–18%
- 2–28%
- 1–27%
- 1–06%
- 2–06%
- Other scores52%
Team Elo: Al-Gharafa 1734 · Al-Arabi SC 1737
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al-Gharafa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1845
Al-Arabi SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Elite) · Elo 1709
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al-Gharafa
10th in Stars League · 9 pts from 9
- 7 NovLAl-Duhail SC Qatar Stars League1726
- 2 NovLAl-Qadisiyah FC AFC Champions League1652
- 30 OctWQatar SC Qatar Stars League1723
- 26 OctLAl-Ahli Jeddah AFC Champions League1689
- 22 OctDAl Ahli Doha Qatar Stars League1698
Al-Arabi SC
4th in Stars League · 14 pts from 9
- 6 NovDAl Ahli Doha Qatar Stars League1769
- 31 OctDAl-Rayyan SC Qatar Stars League1784
- 24 OctLAl Wakrah Qatar Stars League1811
- 16 OctWAl Shahaniya Qatar Stars League1770
- 9 OctWAl Sadd Qatar Stars League1707
Season outlook
From the Stars League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | 9 /9 | 12.3 | 0% | <1% | 31% | 10th |
| Al-Arabi SC | 14 /9 | 16.8 | 0% | 67% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Al-Gharafa: dribble-heavy (how Pedro Martins plays) · Al-Arabi SC: possession-based (how C. Contra plays)