Stars League · Regular Season - 7
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Al Gharafa Stadium , Doha
Al-Gharafa host Al Ahli Doha on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (Stars League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Al-Gharafa 49%, draw 27%, Al Ahli Doha 24%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al-Gharafa €1.5M, Al Ahli Doha €690K.
- Style contrast in possession (Stars League): Al-Gharafa rank #8 of 11, Al Ahli Doha #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Al-Gharafa goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Al-Gharafa 1757 · Al Ahli Doha 1663
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 4 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al-Gharafa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Elite) · Elo 1840
Al Ahli Doha · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.7 (Good) · Elo 1783
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al-Gharafa
10th in Stars League · 5 pts from 6
- 18 OctDAl-Rayyan SC Qatar Stars League1748
- 12 OctLEsteghlal FC AFC Champions League1689
- 8 OctLAl Wakrah Qatar Stars League1755
- 15 SepLAl-Hilal Saudi FC AFC Champions League1755
- 11 SepDLusail City Qatar Stars League1767
Al Ahli Doha
7th in Stars League · 7 pts from 6
- 16 OctLAl Wakrah Qatar Stars League1693
- 10 OctWAl-Sailiya Qatar Stars League1650
- 11 SepLAl-Rayyan SC Qatar Stars League1652
- 3 SepWQatar SC Qatar Stars League1631
- 27 AprWUMM Salal Qatar Stars League1670
Season outlook
From the Stars League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | 5 /6 | 12.8 | 0% | 4% | 21% | 8th |
| Al Ahli Doha | 7 /6 | 13.0 | 0% | 5% | 20% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Al-Gharafa: dribble-heavy (how Pedro Rui da Mota Vieira Martins plays) · Al Ahli Doha: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Borja Jiménez Sáez plays)