Pro League · Regular Season - 11
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 14:45 UTC · Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium, Hasa
Al-Fateh host Al Shabab on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Al-Fateh 26%, draw 28%, Al Shabab 46%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al-Fateh €1.4M, Al Shabab €1.8M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Al-Fateh goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–28%
- 0–08%
- 2–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Al-Fateh 1729 · Al Shabab 1883
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al-Fateh · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1941
Al Shabab · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Elite) · Elo 1975
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al-Fateh
16th in Saudi Pro League · 6 pts from 10
- 18 OctLAl Khaleej Saihat Saudi Pro League1757
- 15 OctWAl-Hazm Saudi Pro League1767
- 9 OctLAl-Ahli Jeddah Saudi Pro League1783
- 13 SepLNEOM Saudi Pro League1742
- 9 SepLAl Diriyah Saudi Pro League1699
Al Shabab
13th in Saudi Pro League · 7 pts from 8
- 11 OctWAl Taawon Saudi Pro League1839
- 12 SepDAl-Fayha Saudi Pro League1846
- 9 SepLAl Kholood Saudi Pro League1880
- 4 SepLAl-Hilal Saudi FC Saudi Pro League1884
- 30 AugDAl-Hazm Saudi Pro League1890
Season outlook
From the Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Fateh | 6 /10 | 29.7 | 0% | 0% | 39% | 16th |
| Al Shabab | 7 /8 | 40.2 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Al-Fateh: balanced profile (how Jamal Sellami plays) · Al Shabab: balanced profile (how Thomas Letsch plays)