Pro League · Regular Season - 8
Al-Fateh 0–4 Al-Ahli Jeddah
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 14:55 UTC · Maydan Tamweel Al Oula, Al-Hasa
Al-FatehTeam 1742Al-Ahli JeddahTeam 2144We gave Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% to win: they did.
Before kick-off (provisional): 13% · 20% · 67%(Al-Fateh · draw · Al-Ahli Jeddah)
Our most likely score was 0–2 (11%); the result 0–4 had 5%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al-Fateh €1.4M, Al-Ahli Jeddah €8.0M.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al-Fateh
15th in Saudi Pro League · 3 pts from 7
- 13 SepLNEOM Saudi Pro League1742
- 9 SepLAl Diriyah Saudi Pro League1699
- 5 SepDAl Taawon Saudi Pro League1720
- 29 AugDAl-Ittihad FC Saudi Pro League1753
- 26 AugDAl-Faisaly FC Saudi Pro League1753
Al-Ahli Jeddah
6th in Saudi Pro League · 12 pts from 7
- 19 SepLMamelodi Sundowns FIFA Intercontinental Cup2191
- 11 SepWAl-Hazm Saudi Pro League2157
- 8 SepLAl-Qadisiyah FC Saudi Pro League2193
- 4 SepWAl Riyadh Saudi Pro League2165
- 1 SepLAl-Hilal Saudi FC Saudi Pro League2224
Season outlook
From the Pro League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Fateh | 3 /7 | 31.0 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 15th |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 12 /7 | 65.4 | 1% | 54% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al-Fateh · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1887
Al-Ahli Jeddah · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2241
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Al-Fateh: balanced profile (how Khaled Al Atawi plays) · Al-Ahli Jeddah: shot-heavy (how Marino Pusic plays)