Pro League · Regular Season - 11
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC
Al-Faisaly FC host Al-Nassr on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Al-Faisaly FC 8%, draw 15%, Al-Nassr 77%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al-Faisaly FC €518K, Al-Nassr €9.1M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Saudi Pro League matchday 11: 553 points.
- Draw chance 15%, below the Saudi Pro League average of 23% this round.
- Al-Nassr's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Al-Faisaly FC goals first.
- 0–210%
- 0–310%
- 1–29%
- 1–38%
- 1–17%
- 0–47%
- Other scores49%
Team Elo: Al-Faisaly FC 1632 · Al-Nassr 2185
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al-Faisaly FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1930
Al-Nassr · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 2463
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al-Faisaly FC
15th in Saudi Pro League · 6 pts from 8
- 15 OctWAl Kholood Saudi Pro League1677
- 11 SepLAl-Ittihad FC Saudi Pro League1649
- 8 SepDAl-Ettifaq Saudi Pro League1635
- 5 SepDAl-Hazm Saudi Pro League1598
- 30 AugLAl-Qadisiyah FC Saudi Pro League1595
Al-Nassr
3rd in Saudi Pro League · 19 pts from 8
- 12 OctWNeftchi AFC Champions League2216
- 9 OctWAl Diriyah Saudi Pro League2195
- 15 SepLAl Ain AFC Champions League2192
- 12 SepDAl Khaleej Saihat Saudi Pro League2196
- 9 SepWAbha Saudi Pro League2173
Season outlook
From the Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Faisaly FC | 6 /8 | 25.6 | 0% | 0% | 69% | 18th |
| Al-Nassr | 19 /8 | 69.4 | 5% | 86% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative