Pro League · Regular Season - 10
Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Riyadh
Al Diriyah host Al Riyadh on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Al Diriyah 70%, draw 19%, Al Riyadh 12%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al Diriyah €4.0M, Al Riyadh €370K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Al Diriyah goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 3–09%
- 1–08%
- 3–18%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Al Diriyah 2006 · Al Riyadh 1664
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al Diriyah · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2305
Al Riyadh · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1826
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al Diriyah
8th in Saudi Pro League · 12 pts from 9
- 17 OctDAl Taawon Saudi Pro League2024
- 9 OctLAl-Nassr Saudi Pro League2044
- 13 SepDAbha Saudi Pro League2050
- 9 SepWAl-Fateh Saudi Pro League2028
- 3 SepLAl-Qadisiyah FC Saudi Pro League2063
Al Riyadh
12th in Saudi Pro League · 9 pts from 8
- 11 OctDAl-Fayha Saudi Pro League1640
- 13 SepWAl Kholood Saudi Pro League1595
- 7 SepDAl Khaleej Saihat Saudi Pro League1599
- 4 SepLAl-Ahli Jeddah Saudi Pro League1598
- 28 AugWNEOM Saudi Pro League1637
Season outlook
From the Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Diriyah | 12 /9 | 52.8 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 7th |
| Al Riyadh | 9 /8 | 31.2 | 0% | 0% | 31% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: –