Pro League · Regular Season - 9
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Alinma Stadium, Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr (Pro League) has been postponed.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al-Ahli Jeddah €8.2M, Al-Nassr €9.0M.
- Home advantage makes Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite here: it adds 2 points to their win chance; Saudi Pro League has one of the three smallest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Draw chance 29%, above the Saudi Pro League average of 22% this round.
- Al-Nassr's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 over 180 days.
Before kick-off (provisional): 37% · 29% · 34%(Al-Ahli Jeddah · draw · Al-Nassr)
Team Elo: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2186 · Al-Nassr 2186
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al-Ahli Jeddah
6th in Saudi Pro League · 15 pts from 8
- 12 OctWAl-Wasl FC AFC Champions League2130
- 9 OctWAl-Fateh Saudi Pro League2150
- 19 SepLMamelodi Sundowns FIFA Intercontinental Cup2191
- 11 SepWAl-Hazm Saudi Pro League2157
- 8 SepLAl-Qadisiyah FC Saudi Pro League2193
Al-Nassr
3rd in Saudi Pro League · 19 pts from 8
- 12 OctWNeftchi AFC Champions League2216
- 9 OctWAl Diriyah Saudi Pro League2195
- 15 SepLAl Ain AFC Champions League2192
- 12 SepDAl Khaleej Saihat Saudi Pro League2196
- 9 SepWAbha Saudi Pro League2173
Season outlook
From the Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 15 /8 | 68.8 | 2% | 74% | 0% | 4th |
| Al-Nassr | 19 /8 | 70.7 | 5% | 83% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al-Ahli Jeddah · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2111
Al-Nassr · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 2241
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Al-Ahli Jeddah: shot-heavy (how Marino Pusic plays) · Al-Nassr: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Angelos Postecoglou plays)