Premier League · Regular Season - 23
Aktobe 1–3 Ordabasy
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Koblandy Batyr Stadium, Aktobe
AktobeTeam 1578OrdabasyTeam 1599We gave Aktobe 40% to win: Ordabasy won.
- D. Sosah 1659 −17* assist D. Topalov 1466 −9*21'Aktobe:D. Sosah 1659 −17* assist D. Topalov 1466 −9*
- A. Tanzharikov 1615 −13*37'Aktobe:A. Tanzharikov 1615 −13*
- B. Kairov 1603 −16*45'Aktobe:B. Kairov 1603 −16*
- A. Shushenachev 1620 −545+1'Aktobe:A. Shushenachev 1620 −5
- 47'Leo Natel 1716 +14*Ordabasy:Leo Natel 1716 +14*
- 53'S. Maliy 1565 +31 assist Leo Natel 1716 +14*Ordabasy:S. Maliy 1565 +31 assist Leo Natel 1716 +14*
- 56'G. Kilama 1750 +12*Ordabasy:G. Kilama 1750 +12*
- Pibe 1525 for A. Tanzharikov 1615 −13*60'Aktobe:Pibe 1525 for A. Tanzharikov 1615 −13*
- 63'T. Keita 1761 for Everton 1578 +31*Ordabasy:T. Keita 1761 for Everton 1578 +31*
- 63'E. Astanov 1672 for Leo Natel 1716 +14*Ordabasy:E. Astanov 1672 for Leo Natel 1716 +14*
- 69'U. Zhaksybaev 1441 for G. Kilama 1750 +12*Ordabasy:U. Zhaksybaev 1441 for G. Kilama 1750 +12*
- G. Zhukov 1582 for S. Miangue 1715 −24*77'Aktobe:G. Zhukov 1582 for S. Miangue 1715 −24*
- Nani 1068 for A. Shushenachev 1620 −577'Aktobe:Nani 1068 for A. Shushenachev 1620 −5
- 77'T. Keita 1761Ordabasy:T. Keita 1761
- 79'A. Nurymbet 1552 for M. Capatina 1640 +21*Ordabasy:A. Nurymbet 1552 for M. Capatina 1640 +21*
- D. Sosah 1659 −17*87'Aktobe:D. Sosah 1659 −17*
- 90+3'D. Abagna 1807 +6*Ordabasy:D. Abagna 1807 +6*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 40% · 29% · 32%(Aktobe · draw · Ordabasy)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–3 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Aktobe €406K, Ordabasy €441K.
- Premier League: B. Shaizada was the highest-rated goalkeeper (1714).
- All 11 of Aktobe's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Aktobe
4th in Premier League · 45 pts from 27
- 18 SepDUlytau Kazakhstan Premier League1550
- 12 SepWKaspiy Kazakhstan Premier League1563
- 5 SepWZhenys Kazakhstan Premier League1538
- 30 AugLIrtysh Kazakhstan Premier League1496
- 9 AugDAtyrau Kazakhstan Premier League1580
Ordabasy
1st in Premier League · 61 pts from 26
- 17 SepWAtyrau Kazakhstan Premier League1628
- 12 SepWFC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League1641
- 5 SepLOkzhetpes Kazakhstan Premier League1631
- 29 AugWKyzyl-Zhar Kazakhstan Premier League1634
- 8 AugWZhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League1660
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aktobe | 45 /27 | 48.9 | 0% | 42% | 0% | 5th |
| Ordabasy | 61 /26 | 66.2 | 59% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Aktobe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1634
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.