Premier League · Regular Season - 29
Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Koblandy Batyr Stadium, Aktobe
Aktobe host Kairat Almaty on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Aktobe 37%, draw 29%, Kairat Almaty 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Aktobe €360K, Kairat Almaty €566K.
- Home advantage makes Aktobe the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- All 11 of Aktobe's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Aktobe goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Aktobe 1565 · Kairat Almaty 1616
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Aktobe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1550
Kairat Almaty · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1639
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Aktobe
5th in Premier League · 45 pts from 28
- 17 OctLOrdabasy Kazakhstan Premier League1624
- 18 SepDUlytau Kazakhstan Premier League1550
- 12 SepWKaspiy Kazakhstan Premier League1563
- 5 SepWZhenys Kazakhstan Premier League1538
- 30 AugLIrtysh Kazakhstan Premier League1496
Kairat Almaty
2nd in Premier League · 63 pts from 27
- 18 OctWIrtysh Kazakhstan Premier League1592
- 15 OctDRiga UEFA Conference League1629
- 17 SepLFC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League1619
- 13 SepLFK Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League1641
- 9 SepWZhenys Kazakhstan Premier League1627
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aktobe | 45 /28 | 47.6 | 0% | 11% | 0% | 5th |
| Kairat Almaty | 63 /27 | 66.3 | 30% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –