Premier League · Regular Season - 15
Akron vs Fakel
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 12:15 UTC · Samara Arena, Samara
Akron host Fakel on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Akron 55%, draw 25%, Fakel 20%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Akron €1.1M, Fakel €514K.
- Fakel's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Akron goals first.
- 1–013%
- 1–112%
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 0–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores39%
Team Elo: Akron 1669 · Fakel 1545
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Akron · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 1754
Fakel · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.9 (Below) · Elo 1641
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Akron
14th in Premier Liga · 12 pts from 14
- 8 NovLSpartak Moscow Russia Premier League1712
- 1 NovLBaltika Russia Premier League1680
- 24 OctWDynamo Russia Premier League1661
- 17 OctDDinamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League1673
- 9 OctLFC Rostov Russia Premier League1701
Fakel
16th in Premier Liga · 6 pts from 14
- 7 NovLDynamo Russia Premier League1556
- 31 OctLRubin Russia Premier League1555
- 24 OctLRodina Moskva Russia Premier League1577
- 17 OctWKrylia Sovetov Russia Premier League1539
- 10 OctLLokomotiv Russia Premier League1533
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | 12 /14 | 30.5 | 0% | 0% | 42% | 15th |
| Fakel | 6 /14 | 19.0 | 0% | 0% | 98% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Akron: balanced profile (how Srđan Blagojević plays) · Fakel: direct · low-volume (how Oleg Vasilenko plays)