Premier League · Regular Season - 12
Akhmat vs FC Orenburg
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Akhmat-Arena, Groznyj
Akhmat host FC Orenburg on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Akhmat 48%, draw 27%, FC Orenburg 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Akhmat €999K, FC Orenburg €861K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Akhmat goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Akhmat 1709 · FC Orenburg 1665
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Akhmat · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1693
FC Orenburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1757
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Akhmat
13th in Premier Liga · 11 pts from 11
- 18 OctLZenit Russia Premier League1721
- 11 OctDBaltika Russia Premier League1716
- 17 SepLAkron Russia Premier League1740
- 13 SepWDinamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League1723
- 7 SepDRubin Russia Premier League1721
FC Orenburg
8th in Premier Liga · 12 pts from 10
- 10 OctWDinamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League1653
- 17 SepDFC Krasnodar Russia Premier League1599
- 12 SepLDynamo Russia Premier League1623
- 6 SepDAkron Russia Premier League1639
- 30 AugDSpartak Moscow Russia Premier League1641
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat | 11 /11 | 33.8 | 0% | <1% | 14% | 10th |
| FC Orenburg | 12 /10 | 34.3 | 0% | <1% | 13% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Akhmat: dribble-heavy (how Stanislav Cherchesov plays) · FC Orenburg: balanced profile (how Ildar Akhmetzyanov plays)