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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 8

Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

Ajax crestAjaxTeam 2152
1–1
Full time
HT 1–1
NEC Nijmegen crestNEC NijmegenTeam 1805

Match story

Ajax · draw · NEC Nijmegen

Before kick-off: 71% · 17% · 12%

Live chances: Ajax 6%, draw 91%, NEC Nijmegen 3% at 90+4'2' · 0–0 · Ajax 71%, draw 17%, NEC Nijmegen 11%3' · 0–0 · Ajax 71%, draw 18%, NEC Nijmegen 12%4' · 0–0 · Ajax 71%, draw 18%, NEC Nijmegen 12%6' · 0–0 · Ajax 70%, draw 18%, NEC Nijmegen 12%7' · 0–0 · Ajax 70%, draw 18%, NEC Nijmegen 12%8' · 1–0 · Ajax 88%, draw 9%, NEC Nijmegen 4%9' · 1–0 · Ajax 88%, draw 9%, NEC Nijmegen 4%10' · 1–0 · Ajax 87%, draw 9%, NEC Nijmegen 4%11' · 1–0 · Ajax 87%, draw 9%, NEC Nijmegen 4%13' · 1–0 · Ajax 87%, draw 9%, NEC Nijmegen 4%14' · 1–0 · Ajax 87%, draw 9%, NEC Nijmegen 4%15' · 1–0 · Ajax 87%, draw 9%, NEC Nijmegen 4%16' · 1–0 · Ajax 87%, draw 9%, NEC Nijmegen 4%17' · 1–0 · Ajax 87%, draw 9%, NEC Nijmegen 4%18' · 1–0 · Ajax 87%, draw 10%, NEC Nijmegen 4%19' · 1–1 · Ajax 67%, draw 20%, NEC Nijmegen 13%20' · 1–1 · Ajax 66%, draw 21%, NEC Nijmegen 13%21' · 1–1 · Ajax 66%, draw 21%, NEC Nijmegen 13%22' · 1–1 · Ajax 66%, draw 21%, NEC Nijmegen 13%23' · 1–1 · Ajax 66%, draw 21%, NEC Nijmegen 13%24' · 1–1 · Ajax 65%, draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen 13%25' · 1–1 · Ajax 65%, draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen 13%26' · 1–1 · Ajax 65%, draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen 13%27' · 1–1 · Ajax 64%, draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen 13%28' · 1–1 · Ajax 64%, draw 23%, NEC Nijmegen 13%29' · 1–1 · Ajax 64%, draw 23%, NEC Nijmegen 13%30' · 1–1 · Ajax 63%, draw 23%, NEC Nijmegen 14%31' · 1–1 · Ajax 63%, draw 23%, NEC Nijmegen 14%32' · 1–1 · Ajax 63%, draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen 14%33' · 1–1 · Ajax 62%, draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen 14%34' · 1–1 · Ajax 62%, draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen 14%36' · 1–1 · Ajax 61%, draw 25%, NEC Nijmegen 14%37' · 1–1 · Ajax 61%, draw 25%, NEC Nijmegen 14%39' · 1–1 · Ajax 60%, draw 26%, NEC Nijmegen 14%40' · 1–1 · Ajax 59%, draw 26%, NEC Nijmegen 14%41' · 1–1 · Ajax 59%, draw 27%, NEC Nijmegen 14%42' · 1–1 · Ajax 59%, draw 27%, NEC Nijmegen 14%43' · 1–1 · Ajax 58%, draw 27%, NEC Nijmegen 14%44' · 1–1 · Ajax 58%, draw 28%, NEC Nijmegen 14%45' · 1–1 · Ajax 57%, draw 28%, NEC Nijmegen 14%45+1' · 1–1 · Ajax 57%, draw 29%, NEC Nijmegen 15%HT · 1–1 · Ajax 56%, draw 30%, NEC Nijmegen 15%47' · 1–1 · Ajax 55%, draw 30%, NEC Nijmegen 15%48' · 1–1 · Ajax 55%, draw 31%, NEC Nijmegen 15%49' · 1–1 · Ajax 54%, draw 31%, NEC Nijmegen 15%50' · 1–1 · Ajax 54%, draw 32%, NEC Nijmegen 15%51' · 1–1 · Ajax 53%, draw 32%, NEC Nijmegen 15%52' · 1–1 · Ajax 52%, draw 33%, NEC Nijmegen 15%53' · 1–1 · Ajax 52%, draw 33%, NEC Nijmegen 15%54' · 1–1 · Ajax 51%, draw 34%, NEC Nijmegen 15%55' · 1–1 · Ajax 50%, draw 35%, NEC Nijmegen 15%56' · 1–1 · Ajax 50%, draw 36%, NEC Nijmegen 15%57' · 1–1 · Ajax 49%, draw 36%, NEC Nijmegen 15%58' · 1–1 · Ajax 48%, draw 37%, NEC Nijmegen 15%59' · 1–2 · Ajax 22%, draw 30%, NEC Nijmegen 48%60' · 1–1 · Ajax 47%, draw 39%, NEC Nijmegen 15%61' · 1–1 · Ajax 46%, draw 39%, NEC Nijmegen 15%62' · 1–1 · Ajax 45%, draw 40%, NEC Nijmegen 15%63' · 1–1 · Ajax 44%, draw 41%, NEC Nijmegen 15%64' · 1–1 · Ajax 44%, draw 42%, NEC Nijmegen 15%65' · 1–1 · Ajax 43%, draw 43%, NEC Nijmegen 14%66' · 1–1 · Ajax 42%, draw 44%, NEC Nijmegen 14%67' · 1–1 · Ajax 41%, draw 44%, NEC Nijmegen 14%68' · 1–1 · Ajax 40%, draw 45%, NEC Nijmegen 14%69' · 1–1 · Ajax 40%, draw 46%, NEC Nijmegen 14%70' · 1–1 · Ajax 39%, draw 47%, NEC Nijmegen 14%71' · 1–1 · Ajax 38%, draw 48%, NEC Nijmegen 14%72' · 1–1 · Ajax 37%, draw 50%, NEC Nijmegen 14%73' · 1–1 · Ajax 36%, draw 51%, NEC Nijmegen 13%74' · 1–1 · Ajax 35%, draw 52%, NEC Nijmegen 13%75' · 1–1 · Ajax 34%, draw 53%, NEC Nijmegen 13%76' · 1–1 · Ajax 33%, draw 54%, NEC Nijmegen 13%77' · 1–1 · Ajax 32%, draw 56%, NEC Nijmegen 12%78' · 1–1 · Ajax 31%, draw 57%, NEC Nijmegen 12%79' · 1–1 · Ajax 30%, draw 59%, NEC Nijmegen 12%80' · 1–1 · Ajax 28%, draw 60%, NEC Nijmegen 11%81' · 1–1 · Ajax 27%, draw 62%, NEC Nijmegen 11%82' · 1–1 · Ajax 26%, draw 63%, NEC Nijmegen 11%83' · 1–1 · Ajax 25%, draw 65%, NEC Nijmegen 10%84' · 1–1 · Ajax 23%, draw 67%, NEC Nijmegen 10%85' · 1–1 · Ajax 22%, draw 69%, NEC Nijmegen 9%86' · 1–1 · Ajax 21%, draw 71%, NEC Nijmegen 9%87' · 1–1 · Ajax 19%, draw 73%, NEC Nijmegen 8%88' · 1–1 · Ajax 17%, draw 75%, NEC Nijmegen 8%89' · 1–1 · Ajax 16%, draw 77%, NEC Nijmegen 7%90' · 1–1 · Ajax 14%, draw 80%, NEC Nijmegen 6%90+1' · 1–1 · Ajax 12%, draw 82%, NEC Nijmegen 6%90+2' · 1–1 · Ajax 10%, draw 85%, NEC Nijmegen 5%90+3' · 1–1 · Ajax 8%, draw 88%, NEC Nijmegen 4%90+4' · 1–1 · Ajax 6%, draw 91%, NEC Nijmegen 3%

Last reading, 90+4': 6% · 91% · 3%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Ajax 71% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 7'Ajax:Tolu Arokodare 2124 −8* assist Jorthy Mokio 2088 −8*
  2. 17'Ajax:Jorthy Mokio 2088 −8*
  3. 19'NEC Nijmegen:Tjaronn Chery 1816 +3* (pen.)
  4. 33'NEC Nijmegen:Bryan Linssen 1826 +1*
  5. 54'NEC Nijmegen:Gabriel·Bras 1724 +18*
  6. 60'Ajax:Abdellah Ouazane 1727 −8* for Oscar Gloukh 2173 −2
  7. 60'Ajax:Simon Adingra 2143 −8* for Viktor Tsygankov 2102 −1
  8. 67'Ajax:Abdellah Ouazane 1727 −8*
  9. 72'NEC Nijmegen:Ahmetcan Kaplan 2060 −5* for Perr Schuurs 2005 +3*
  10. 73'NEC Nijmegen:Mitchel Bakker 2131 −6* for Bryan Linssen 1826 +1*
  11. 73'Ajax:Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida 2300 −8* for Tolu Arokodare 2124 −8*
  12. 73'Ajax:Aaron Bouwman 2016 −8* for Lucas Oliveira·Rosa 2193 −9*
  13. 80'Ajax:Davy Klaassen 2095 −13* for Owen Wijndal 2054 −8*
  14. 82'NEC Nijmegen:Jamiro Monteiro 1774 −10* for Kevin Kers 1597 +22*
  15. 82'NEC Nijmegen:Willum Thor Willumsson 1933 −7* for Tjaronn Chery 1816 +3*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations3-4-2-1
GM. ter Stegen2318−15*
DLucas Rosa2193−9*
DT. Kehrer2211−12*
DY. Baas2252−17*
DO. Wijndal2054−8*
MS. Amrabat2211−17*
MJ. Mokio2088−8*
MJ. Brandt2296−23*
FV. Tsygankov2102−1
FT. Arokodare2124−8*
FO. Gloukh2173−2
CMíchel1984−8*
GG. Crettaz1990+31*
DT. Storm1750+17*
DP. Schuurs2005+3*
DGabriel Brás1724+18*
MDeveron Fonville1930+9*
MD. Nejašmić1915+9*
MN. Lebreton1916+9*
MKevin Kers1597+22*
MT. Chery1816+3*
MD. Tadić1766+13
FB. Linssen1826+1*
CDick Schreuder1938+22*
Before kick-off: 71% · 17% · 12%(Ajax · draw · NEC Nijmegen)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–1 (9%); the result 1–1 had 8%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Ajax €7.1M, NEC Nijmegen €1.6M.
  • Ajax were without 3 expected starters: A. Gaaei (2173), Caio Henrique (2217) and S. Berghuis (2101).
  • NEC Nijmegen were without 1 expected starter: B. Nuytinck (1488).
  • Largest team-Elo gap of Eredivisie matchday 8: 360 points.
  • Draw chance was 18%, below the Eredivisie average of 26% this round.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Ajax

5th in Eredivisie · 14 pts from 7

  • 19 SepDExcelsior 2179
  • 15 SepWWillem II 2137
  • 12 SepWFortuna Sittard 2149
  • 5 SepLPSV Eindhoven 2166
  • 30 AugWTelstar 2125

NEC Nijmegen

11th in Eredivisie · 8 pts from 7

  • 20 SepDGO Ahead Eagles 1789
  • 17 SepLJuventus 1800
  • 12 SepLCambuur 1822
  • 8 SepDExcelsior 1695
  • 5 SepLFeyenoord 1822

Season outlook

From the Eredivisie simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Ajax14 /768.617%89%0%2nd
NEC Nijmegen8 /739.10%<1%11%12th
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Eredivisie

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa

Ajax · +5.3 (Elite) · Elo 2203

Deveron Fonville
Deveron Fonville

NEC Nijmegen · +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1921

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Miguel Ángel Sánchez Muñoz

Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based

Dick Schreuder

Coach DNA: creative

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Ajax: possession-based (how Miguel Ángel Sánchez Muñoz plays) · NEC Nijmegen: balanced profile (how Dick Schreuder plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.