Eredivisie · Regular Season - 11
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Ajax host AZ Alkmaar on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Eredivisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Ajax 49%, draw 27%, AZ Alkmaar 24%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ajax €6.4M, AZ Alkmaar €4.8M.
- Eredivisie: M. ter Stegen is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2291).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Ajax goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.9 pts
Team Elo: Ajax 2162 · AZ Alkmaar 2066
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2203
AZ Alkmaar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.3 (Good) · Elo 2140
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ajax
4th in Eredivisie · 18 pts from 9
- 18 OctWGroningen Eredivisie2137
- 15 OctLHNK Hajduk Split UEFA Conference League2076
- 10 OctDNEC Nijmegen Eredivisie2181
- 19 SepDExcelsior Eredivisie2179
- 15 SepWWillem II Eredivisie2137
AZ Alkmaar
2nd in Eredivisie · 20 pts from 9
- 18 OctDCambuur Eredivisie2080
- 15 OctWHapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League2012
- 10 OctLFeyenoord Eredivisie2093
- 20 SepWTelstar Eredivisie2111
- 16 SepLSunderland UEFA Europa League2090
Season outlook
From the Eredivisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 18 /9 | 68.6 | 21% | 92% | 0% | 3rd |
| AZ Alkmaar | 20 /9 | 65.3 | 9% | 78% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Ajax: possession-based (how Miguel Ángel Sánchez Muñoz plays) · AZ Alkmaar: balanced profile (how Leeroy Echteld plays)