Eredivisie · Regular Season - 13
Ajax vs ADO Den Haag
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Ajax host ADO Den Haag on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Eredivisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Ajax 77%, draw 15%, ADO Den Haag 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ajax €6.0M, ADO Den Haag €975K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Eredivisie matchday 13: 430 points.
- Draw chance 15%, below the Eredivisie average of 24% this round.
- Eredivisie: M. ter Stegen is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2317).
- Ajax's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Ajax goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–09%
- 2–18%
- 3–18%
- 1–17%
- 4–07%
- Other scores51%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.2 pts
Team Elo: Ajax 2193 · ADO Den Haag 1763
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2308
ADO Den Haag · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1855
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ajax
3rd in Eredivisie · 25 pts from 12
- 8 NovDTwente Eredivisie2195
- 5 NovWFC Midtjylland UEFA Conference League2142
- 31 OctWAZ Alkmaar Eredivisie2150
- 25 OctWSparta Rotterdam Eredivisie2131
- 22 OctWAtalanta UEFA Conference League2181
ADO Den Haag
17th in Eredivisie · 9 pts from 12
- 7 NovWSparta Rotterdam Eredivisie1767
- 1 NovLPEC Zwolle Eredivisie1773
- 24 OctLHeerenveen Eredivisie1784
- 17 OctWPSV Eindhoven Eredivisie1736
- 11 OctDTelstar Eredivisie1770
Season outlook
From the Eredivisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 25 /12 | 71.4 | 30% | 97% | 0% | 2nd |
| ADO Den Haag | 9 /12 | 33.9 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Ajax: possession-based (how Míchel plays) · ADO Den Haag: balanced profile (how Robin Peter plays)