1. Division · Regular Season - 5
AEL 2–1 Omonia 29is Maiou
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Alphamega Stadium, Limassol
AELTeam 1595Omonia 29is MaiouTeam 1348- Joao Tavares 59'
- Remi Oudin 81'
- Fergus Tierney 66'
We gave AEL 61% to win: they did.
- Tavares jair – for François Régis Mughe –46'AEL:Tavares jair – for François Régis Mughe –
- 52'Alexandros kaiafas – for Dimitris Chantakias –Omonia 29is Maiou:Alexandros kaiafas – for Dimitris Chantakias –
- 52'Fergus Tierney – for panyiotis zachariouOmonia 29is Maiou:Fergus Tierney – for panyiotis zachariou
- Joao Tavares –59'AEL:Joao Tavares –
- Chinedu Geoffrey – for Joao Tavares –62'AEL:Chinedu Geoffrey – for Joao Tavares –
- Ivan Milosavljevic – for kypros neofytou –62'AEL:Ivan Milosavljevic – for kypros neofytou –
- 66'Fergus Tierney –Omonia 29is Maiou:Fergus Tierney –
- 71'Domen Črnigoj – for Morais Mike –Omonia 29is Maiou:Domen Črnigoj – for Morais Mike –
- 71'Anestis Vlachomitros – for Kelechi Nwakali –Omonia 29is Maiou:Anestis Vlachomitros – for Kelechi Nwakali –
- Sergio Conceicao – for Luther Singh –74'AEL:Sergio Conceicao – for Luther Singh –
- 76'Luis·Santos – for Stylianos Panteli –Omonia 29is Maiou:Luis·Santos – for Stylianos Panteli –
- Remi Oudin –81'AEL:Remi Oudin –
- 89'Sotiris Fiakas –Omonia 29is Maiou:Sotiris Fiakas –
Before kick-off (provisional): 61% · 23% · 16%(AEL · draw · Omonia 29is Maiou)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 2–1 had 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AEL €361K, Omonia 29is Maiou €193K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AEL
4th in 1. Division · 9 pts from 4
- 18 SepWPafos Cypriot First Division1547
- 11 SepWNea Salamis Cypriot First Division1529
- 6 SepLApoel Nicosia Cypriot First Division1616
- 30 AugWAnorthosis Cypriot First Division1595
- 15 MayWAkritas Cypriot First Division1443
Omonia 29is Maiou
8th in 1. Division · 5 pts from 4
- 18 SepLAEK Larnaca Cypriot First Division1286
- 13 SepDOlympiakos Cypriot First Division1283
- 4 SepDKarmiotissa Cypriot First Division1288
- 11 MayLOmonia Aradippou Cypriot First Division1171
- 5 MayLNea Salamis Cypriot First Division1219
Season outlook
From the 1. Division simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEL | 9 /4 | 40.3 | 1% | 21% | <1% | 6th |
| Omonia 29is Maiou | 5 /4 | 21.9 | 0% | 0% | 65% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AEL · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1606
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –