1. Division · Regular Season - 7
AEL vs Aris
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
AEL host Aris on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (1. Division); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: AEL 38%, draw 29%, Aris 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AEL €426K, Aris €482K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. AEL goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: AEL 1603 · Aris 1594
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AEL · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1614
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AEL
1st in 1. Division · 15 pts from 6
- 18 OctWOmonia Aradippou Cypriot First Division1571
- 11 OctWOmonia 29is Maiou Cypriot First Division1583
- 18 SepWPafos Cypriot First Division1547
- 11 SepWNea Salamis Cypriot First Division1529
- 6 SepLApoel Nicosia Cypriot First Division1616
Aris
6th in 1. Division · 9 pts from 6
- 18 OctDAEK Larnaca Cypriot First Division1616
- 11 OctWOlympiakos Cypriot First Division1586
- 20 SepDKarmiotissa Cypriot First Division1561
- 7 SepLOmonia Nicosia Cypriot First Division1588
- 29 AugDApollon Limassol Cypriot First Division1604
Season outlook
From the 1. Division simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEL | 15 /6 | 43.7 | 2% | 34% | 0% | 6th |
| Aris | 9 /6 | 37.4 | <1% | 7% | 1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –