1. Division · Regular Season - 9
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · AEK Arena, Larnaca
AEK Larnaca host Karmiotissa on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (1. Division); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: AEK Larnaca 74%, draw 17%, Karmiotissa 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AEK Larnaca €518K, Karmiotissa €234K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of 1. Division matchday 9: 398 points.
- Draw chance 17%, below the 1. Division average of 25% this round.
- All 11 of AEK Larnaca's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. AEK Larnaca goals first.
- 2–011%
- 3–09%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 1–18%
- 1–07%
- Other scores48%
Team Elo: AEK Larnaca 1748 · Karmiotissa 1350
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AEK Larnaca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1882
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AEK Larnaca
2nd in 1. Division · 13 pts from 6
- 18 OctDAris Cypriot First Division1751
- 12 OctWOmonia Aradippou Cypriot First Division1769
- 18 SepWOmonia 29is Maiou Cypriot First Division1728
- 13 SepLPafos Cypriot First Division1710
- 6 SepWNea Salamis Cypriot First Division1690
Karmiotissa
14th in 1. Division · 3 pts from 6
- 17 OctLKrasava Ypsonas Cypriot First Division1364
- 9 OctLOmonia Nicosia Cypriot First Division1279
- 20 SepDAris Cypriot First Division1354
- 12 SepDOmonia Aradippou Cypriot First Division1336
- 4 SepDOmonia 29is Maiou Cypriot First Division1371
Season outlook
From the 1. Division simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | 13 /6 | 48.9 | 15% | 75% | 0% | 2nd |
| Karmiotissa | 3 /6 | 19.3 | 0% | 0% | 80% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –