Super League 1 · Regular Season - 6
AEK Athens FC 3–0 OFI
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Allwyn Arena, Nea Filadelfeia
AEK Athens FCTeam 2087
OFITeam 1814Match story
AEK Athens FC · draw · OFIBefore kick-off: 63% · 22% · 15%
Last reading, 90+4': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
We gave AEK Athens FC 63% to win: they did.
- 24'C. Kontis
OFI:C. Kontis - Llazaros Rota 2219 +9*34'
AEK Athens FC:Llazaros Rota 2219 +9* - 34'Taxiarchis Fountas 1820 −13*
OFI:Taxiarchis Fountas 1820 −13* - 36'Aitor Cantalapiedra 1867 −16*
OFI:Aitor Cantalapiedra 1867 −16* - Filipe do Bem Relvas Vitó Oliveira 2236 +9* assist Lovro Majer 2060 +24*41'
AEK Athens FC:Filipe do Bem Relvas Vitó Oliveira 2236 +9* assist Lovro Majer 2060 +24* - Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador 1877 −2* for Kaan Kairinen 2066 +2262'
AEK Athens FC:Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador 1877 −2* for Kaan Kairinen 2066 +22 - 66'Aitor Cantalapiedra 1867 −16*
OFI:Aitor Cantalapiedra 1867 −16* - João Mário 1908 −2* for Dereck Kutesa 1809 +7*67'
AEK Athens FC:João Mário 1908 −2* for Dereck Kutesa 1809 +7* - 71'Thiago Nuss 1838 −9* for Taxiarchis Fountas 1820 −13*
OFI:Thiago Nuss 1838 −9* for Taxiarchis Fountas 1820 −13* - 72'Giannis Apostolakis 1793 −8* for Andreas Bouchalakis 1815 −16*
OFI:Giannis Apostolakis 1793 −8* for Andreas Bouchalakis 1815 −16* - 78'Anastasios Chatzigiovanis 1805 −10* for Kenan Kodro 1766 −12*
OFI:Anastasios Chatzigiovanis 1805 −10* for Kenan Kodro 1766 −12* - 79'Borja González 1749 −10* for Konstantinos Kostoulas 1856 −13*
OFI:Borja González 1749 −10* for Konstantinos Kostoulas 1856 −13* - Harold Moukoudi 2189 +13* assist Răzvan Marin 2156 +2283'
AEK Athens FC:Harold Moukoudi 2189 +13* assist Răzvan Marin 2156 +22 - Lovro Majer 2060 +24*86'
AEK Athens FC:Lovro Majer 2060 +24* - Martin Georgiev 1700 −5* for Llazaros Rota 2219 +9*87'
AEK Athens FC:Martin Georgiev 1700 −5* for Llazaros Rota 2219 +9* - Mijat Gaćinović 1917 −10* for Luka Jovic 2142 +888'
AEK Athens FC:Mijat Gaćinović 1917 −10* for Luka Jovic 2142 +8 - Milan Vitális 2098 0 for Lovro Majer 2060 +24*88'
AEK Athens FC:Milan Vitális 2098 0 for Lovro Majer 2060 +24* - 90+1'Zisis Karachalios 1628 −10* for Athanasios Androutsos 1921 −13
OFI:Zisis Karachalios 1628 −10* for Athanasios Androutsos 1921 −13 - Mijat Gaćinović 1917 −10*90+3'
AEK Athens FC:Mijat Gaćinović 1917 −10*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 63% · 22% · 15%(AEK Athens FC · draw · OFI)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 3–0 had 7%.
- Average value of the starting XI: AEK Athens FC €4.8M, OFI €864K.
- Super League 1: L. Jović was the highest-rated forward (2134).
- Style contrast in dribbling (Super League 1): AEK Athens FC ranked #2 of 14, OFI #11.
- AEK Athens FC's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
- All 11 of AEK Athens FC's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AEK Athens FC
3rd in Super League 1 · 11 pts from 5
- 20 SepWVolos NFC Greece Super League2039
- 13 SepDAsteras Tripolis Greece Super League2063
- 8 SepWLask Linz UEFA Champions League2092
- 5 SepWAris Thessalonikis Greece Super League2089
- 30 AugDKifisia Greece Super League2111
OFI
4th in Super League 1 · 10 pts from 5
- 20 SepDAsteras Tripolis Greece Super League1812
- 17 SepW1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Europa League1822
- 12 SepWOlympiakos Piraeus Greece Super League1788
- 6 SepWKifisia Greece Super League1781
- 30 AugLAris Thessalonikis Greece Super League1813
Season outlook
From the Super League 1 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 11 /5 | 53.7 | 30% | 95% | 0% | 1st |
| OFI | 10 /5 | 40.7 | <1% | 18% | <1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

AEK Athens FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2227

OFI · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.7 (Good) · Elo 1831
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
AEK Athens FC: creative · possession-based (how Marko Nikolić plays) · OFI: balanced profile (how Christos Kontis plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.