Segunda División · Regular Season - 9
AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Sabadell
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:15 UTC · Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
AD Ceuta FCTeam 1606SabadellTeam 1589- Jordi Escobar 45+5'
- Ángel Baena 26', 80'
We gave AD Ceuta FC 46% to win: Sabadell won.
- 14'Ton Ripoll –Sabadell:Ton Ripoll –
- Jordi Escobar –25'AD Ceuta FC:Jordi Escobar –
- 26'Ángel Baena – assist Quadri Liameed –Sabadell:Ángel Baena – assist Quadri Liameed –
- Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre – for Daniel Mas Soria –35'AD Ceuta FC:Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre – for Daniel Mas Soria –
- Marino Illesca – for Joaquín Felipe González Rodríguez –35'AD Ceuta FC:Marino Illesca – for Joaquín Felipe González Rodríguez –
- 44'Edgar Gonzalez –Sabadell:Edgar Gonzalez –
- 45'Eneko Aguilar – for Miki Codina –Sabadell:Eneko Aguilar – for Miki Codina –
- Jordi Escobar –45+5'AD Ceuta FC:Jordi Escobar –
- 53'Edgar Gonzalez –Sabadell:Edgar Gonzalez –
- 59'José Luis Català – for Alain Ribeiro –Sabadell:José Luis Català – for Alain Ribeiro –
- Abraham Bueno Espinosa for Alejandro Camacho Ramírez –79'AD Ceuta FC:Abraham Bueno Espinosa for Alejandro Camacho Ramírez –
- 80'Yanis Rahmani – for Ton Ripoll –Sabadell:Yanis Rahmani – for Ton Ripoll –
- 80'Pere Pons – for Quadri Liameed –Sabadell:Pere Pons – for Quadri Liameed –
- 80'Ángel Baena – assist Pere Pons –Sabadell:Ángel Baena – assist Pere Pons –
- Alejandro Meléndez – for Carlos Hernández –85'AD Ceuta FC:Alejandro Meléndez – for Carlos Hernández –
- Omar Sadik – for Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro85'AD Ceuta FC:Omar Sadik – for Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
- 87'Nikolay Obolskiy – for Ángel Baena –Sabadell:Nikolay Obolskiy – for Ángel Baena –
- 88'Eneko Aguilar –Sabadell:Eneko Aguilar –
Before kick-off (provisional): 46% · 28% · 26%(AD Ceuta FC · draw · Sabadell)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–2 had 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AD Ceuta FC €454K, Sabadell €493K.
- All 11 of AD Ceuta FC's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AD Ceuta FC
21st in Segunda División · 5 pts from 8
- 4 OctDCastellón Spain Segunda Division1559
- 26 SepWReal Sociedad II Spain Segunda Division1568
- 20 SepDValladolid Spain Segunda Division1551
- 11 SepLBurgos Spain Segunda Division1510
- 5 SepLCelta de Vigo II Spain Segunda Division1532
Sabadell
7th in Segunda División · 13 pts from 8
- 26 SepDCelta de Vigo II Spain Segunda Division1565
- 20 SepWOviedo Spain Segunda Division1452
- 13 SepLMallorca Spain Segunda Division1485
- 7 SepWCordoba Spain Segunda Division1383
- 29 AugWAlmeria Spain Segunda Division1358
Season outlook
From the Segunda División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 5 /8 | 40.5 | 0% | 0% | 64% | 22nd |
| Sabadell | 13 /8 | 48.1 | 0% | <1% | 23% | 19th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AD Ceuta FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1515
Sabadell · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Good) · Elo 1805
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –