Segunda División · Regular Season - 10
AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Oviedo
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
AD Ceuta FCTeam 1605OviedoTeam 1817We gave Oviedo 43% to win: they did.
- Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre –20'AD Ceuta FC:Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre –
- Marino Illesca –22'AD Ceuta FC:Marino Illesca –
- 23'Samuel Rodríguez de la Riva – assist David Jimenez –Oviedo:Samuel Rodríguez de la Riva – assist David Jimenez –
- 25'David Jimenez –Oviedo:David Jimenez –
- Jordi Escobar –43'AD Ceuta FC:Jordi Escobar –
- Carlos Redruello Nimo – for Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre –45'AD Ceuta FC:Carlos Redruello Nimo – for Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre –
- José Juan Romero Gil56'AD Ceuta FC:José Juan Romero Gil
- 59'José Luis Morales – for Víctor García Mingo –Oviedo:José Luis Morales – for Víctor García Mingo –
- 59'Nacho Vidal – for David Jimenez –Oviedo:Nacho Vidal – for David Jimenez –
- 59'Pablo Saenz – for Alberto Reina –Oviedo:Pablo Saenz – for Alberto Reina –
- 61'Carlos Dominguez –Oviedo:Carlos Dominguez –
- Omar Sadik – for Edgar Sevikyan –72'AD Ceuta FC:Omar Sadik – for Edgar Sevikyan –
- Alejandro Camacho Ramírez – for Kialy Abdoul Kone –72'AD Ceuta FC:Alejandro Camacho Ramírez – for Kialy Abdoul Kone –
- 74'Jacobo González – for Mikel Goti Lopez –Oviedo:Jacobo González – for Mikel Goti Lopez –
- Abraham Bueno Espinosa for José Matos –81'AD Ceuta FC:Abraham Bueno Espinosa for José Matos –
- Alejandro Camacho Ramírez –83'AD Ceuta FC:Alejandro Camacho Ramírez –
- 84'Daniel Villahermosa – for Enzo Pérez Miranda –Oviedo:Daniel Villahermosa – for Enzo Pérez Miranda –
- Kuki Zalazar –90'AD Ceuta FC:Kuki Zalazar –
- 90+6'Aritz Aldasoro –Oviedo:Aritz Aldasoro –
Before kick-off (provisional): 29% · 28% · 43%(AD Ceuta FC · draw · Oviedo)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–2 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AD Ceuta FC €401K, Oviedo €1.8M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Segunda División matchday 10: 212 points.
- Segunda División: Carlos Domínguez was the highest-rated defender (2119).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AD Ceuta FC
21st in Segunda División · 5 pts from 9
- 10 OctLSabadell Spain Segunda Division1558
- 4 OctDCastellón Spain Segunda Division1559
- 26 SepWReal Sociedad II Spain Segunda Division1568
- 20 SepDValladolid Spain Segunda Division1551
- 11 SepLBurgos Spain Segunda Division1510
Oviedo
9th in Segunda División · 14 pts from 9
- 12 OctWEibar Spain Segunda Division1813
- 2 OctLEldense Spain Segunda Division1839
- 27 SepWSporting Gijon Spain Segunda Division1822
- 20 SepLSabadell Spain Segunda Division1796
- 13 SepWValladolid Spain Segunda Division1731
Season outlook
From the Segunda División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 5 /9 | 38.0 | 0% | 0% | 75% | 22nd |
| Oviedo | 14 /9 | 63.9 | 1% | 15% | <1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AD Ceuta FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Elite) · Elo 1769
Oviedo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1891
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
AD Ceuta FC: balanced profile (how José Juan Romero Gil plays) · Oviedo: balanced profile (how Julián Calero Fernández plays)