Segunda División · Regular Season - 15
AD Ceuta FC vs Almeria
Mon 23 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
AD Ceuta FC host Almeria on Mon 23 Nov 2026 (Segunda División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: AD Ceuta FC 23%, draw 27%, Almeria 50%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AD Ceuta FC €435K, Almeria €1.4M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Segunda División matchday 15: 296 points.
- AD Ceuta FC's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
- All 11 of AD Ceuta FC's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Almeria are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. AD Ceuta FC goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–29%
- 0–19%
- 0–28%
- 0–07%
- 2–26%
- Other scores48%
Team Elo: AD Ceuta FC 1606 · Almeria 1902
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AD Ceuta FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1671
Almeria · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.9 (Good) · Elo 1985
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AD Ceuta FC
22nd in Segunda División · 5 pts from 13
- 7 NovLCordoba Spain Segunda Division1631
- 1 NovLSporting Gijon Spain Segunda Division1634
- 25 OctLCadiz Spain Segunda Division1621
- 18 OctLOviedo Spain Segunda Division1639
- 10 OctLSabadell Spain Segunda Division1541
Almeria
1st in Segunda División · 29 pts from 13
- 8 NovWGirona Spain Segunda Division1891
- 31 OctDEibar Spain Segunda Division1872
- 24 OctDOviedo Spain Segunda Division1875
- 17 OctWReal Sociedad II Spain Segunda Division1874
- 11 OctWLeganes Spain Segunda Division1838
Season outlook
From the Segunda División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 5 /13 | 34.4 | 0% | 0% | 88% | 22nd |
| Almeria | 29 /13 | 78.1 | 42% | 86% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
AD Ceuta FC: balanced profile (how José Juan Romero plays) · Almeria: creative · shot-heavy (how Javier Garcia Pimienta Francisco plays)