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League Two · Regular Season - 11

Accrington ST 3–1 Gillingham

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · The Crown Ground, Accrington

Accrington ST crestAccrington STTeam 1457
3–1
Full time
HT 2–1
Gillingham crestGillinghamTeam 1661

Match story

Accrington ST · draw · Gillingham

Before kick-off: 26% · 28% · 46%

Live chances: Accrington ST 100%, draw 0%, Gillingham 0% at 90+4'1' · 0–0 · Accrington ST 26%, draw 28%, Gillingham 46%2' · 0–0 · Accrington ST 26%, draw 28%, Gillingham 46%3' · 0–0 · Accrington ST 26%, draw 28%, Gillingham 46%4' · 0–0 · Accrington ST 26%, draw 28%, Gillingham 46%5' · 0–0 · Accrington ST 26%, draw 28%, Gillingham 46%6' · 0–0 · Accrington ST 26%, draw 28%, Gillingham 46%7' · 0–0 · Accrington ST 26%, draw 28%, Gillingham 46%8' · 0–0 · Accrington ST 26%, draw 28%, Gillingham 45%9' · 0–0 · Accrington ST 26%, draw 29%, Gillingham 45%10' · 0–0 · Accrington ST 26%, draw 29%, Gillingham 45%11' · 0–0 · Accrington ST 26%, draw 29%, Gillingham 45%12' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 52%, draw 26%, Gillingham 23%13' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 52%, draw 26%, Gillingham 22%14' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 52%, draw 26%, Gillingham 22%15' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 52%, draw 26%, Gillingham 22%16' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 52%, draw 26%, Gillingham 22%17' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 52%, draw 26%, Gillingham 21%18' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 53%, draw 26%, Gillingham 21%19' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 53%, draw 26%, Gillingham 21%20' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 53%, draw 26%, Gillingham 21%21' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 53%, draw 26%, Gillingham 21%22' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 53%, draw 26%, Gillingham 20%23' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 53%, draw 26%, Gillingham 20%24' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 54%, draw 26%, Gillingham 20%25' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 54%, draw 26%, Gillingham 20%26' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 54%, draw 26%, Gillingham 20%27' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 54%, draw 26%, Gillingham 19%28' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 54%, draw 26%, Gillingham 19%29' · 1–0 · Accrington ST 55%, draw 26%, Gillingham 19%30' · 2–0 · Accrington ST 83%, draw 12%, Gillingham 5%31' · 2–0 · Accrington ST 83%, draw 12%, Gillingham 5%32' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 55%, draw 27%, Gillingham 18%33' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 55%, draw 27%, Gillingham 18%34' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 56%, draw 27%, Gillingham 18%35' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 56%, draw 27%, Gillingham 18%36' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 56%, draw 27%, Gillingham 17%37' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 56%, draw 27%, Gillingham 17%38' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 57%, draw 27%, Gillingham 17%39' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 57%, draw 27%, Gillingham 17%40' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 57%, draw 27%, Gillingham 16%41' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 57%, draw 27%, Gillingham 16%42' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 58%, draw 27%, Gillingham 16%43' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 58%, draw 27%, Gillingham 15%44' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 58%, draw 27%, Gillingham 15%45' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 58%, draw 27%, Gillingham 15%45+1' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 59%, draw 27%, Gillingham 15%45+2' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 59%, draw 27%, Gillingham 14%HT · 2–1 · Accrington ST 59%, draw 27%, Gillingham 14%47' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 60%, draw 27%, Gillingham 14%48' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 60%, draw 27%, Gillingham 13%49' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 60%, draw 27%, Gillingham 13%50' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 61%, draw 26%, Gillingham 13%51' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 61%, draw 26%, Gillingham 12%52' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 62%, draw 26%, Gillingham 12%53' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 62%, draw 26%, Gillingham 12%54' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 62%, draw 26%, Gillingham 11%55' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 63%, draw 26%, Gillingham 11%56' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 63%, draw 26%, Gillingham 11%57' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 64%, draw 26%, Gillingham 10%58' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 64%, draw 26%, Gillingham 10%59' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 65%, draw 26%, Gillingham 10%60' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 65%, draw 25%, Gillingham 9%61' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 66%, draw 25%, Gillingham 9%62' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 66%, draw 25%, Gillingham 9%63' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 67%, draw 25%, Gillingham 8%64' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 67%, draw 25%, Gillingham 8%65' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 68%, draw 25%, Gillingham 8%66' · 2–1 · Accrington ST 68%, draw 24%, Gillingham 7%67' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 94%, draw 5%, Gillingham 1%68' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 94%, draw 5%, Gillingham 1%69' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 94%, draw 5%, Gillingham 1%70' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 95%, draw 5%, Gillingham 1%71' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 95%, draw 4%, Gillingham 1%72' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 95%, draw 4%, Gillingham 1%73' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 95%, draw 4%, Gillingham 1%74' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 96%, draw 4%, Gillingham 1%75' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 96%, draw 4%, Gillingham 0%76' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 96%, draw 3%, Gillingham 0%77' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 96%, draw 3%, Gillingham 0%78' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 97%, draw 3%, Gillingham 0%79' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 97%, draw 3%, Gillingham 0%80' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 97%, draw 2%, Gillingham 0%81' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 98%, draw 2%, Gillingham 0%82' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 98%, draw 2%, Gillingham 0%83' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 98%, draw 2%, Gillingham 0%84' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 98%, draw 2%, Gillingham 0%85' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 98%, draw 1%, Gillingham 0%86' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 99%, draw 1%, Gillingham 0%87' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 99%, draw 1%, Gillingham 0%88' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 99%, draw 1%, Gillingham 0%89' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 99%, draw 1%, Gillingham 0%90' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 99%, draw 1%, Gillingham 0%90+1' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 100%, draw 0%, Gillingham 0%90+2' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 100%, draw 0%, Gillingham 0%90+3' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 100%, draw 0%, Gillingham 0%90+4' · 3–1 · Accrington ST 100%, draw 0%, Gillingham 0%

Last reading, 90+4': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Gillingham 46% to win: Accrington ST won.

  1. 6'Accrington ST:Devon matthews 1584 +16
  2. 11'Accrington ST:Stefan Mols 1297 +201
  3. 19'Accrington ST:Donald Love 1526 +19
  4. 21'Gillingham:Harry Waldock 1577 0
  5. 28'Accrington ST:Josh Woods 1576 +55 assist Stefan Mols 1297 +201
  6. 31'Gillingham:Devon matthews 1584 +16 (own goal)
  7. 33'Gillingham:Armani Little 1633 −2
  8. 54'Gillingham:Jack Daley 1691 0 for Logan Dobbs 1599 0
  9. 55'Gillingham:Tom Eaves 1523 −6 for Armani Little 1633 −2
  10. 55'Gillingham:Ethan·Coleman 1623 0 for Harry Waldock 1577 0
  11. 66'Accrington ST:Josh Woods 1576 +55 assist Stefan Mols 1297 +201
  12. 70'Gillingham:Garath McCleary 1202 −13 for Andy Smith 1765 −9
  13. 70'Gillingham:Bradley Dack 1527 −5 for Lamin Sillah 1509 0
  14. 76'Accrington ST:Conor Grant 1507 +1 for Charlie Warren 1551 +17
  15. 79'Gillingham:Ronan Chapman Hale 1764 −13

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-1-4-2Formations3-4-3
GL. Moulden1553+20
DD. Matthews1584+16
DD. Love1526+19
DJ. Anderson1557+19
MAidan Borland1494+27
MC. O'Brien1583+16
MC. Warren1551+17
MStefan Mols1297+201
MD. Tutonda1531+20
FT. Walton1532+21
FJ. Woods1576+55
CJ. Doolan1595+29
GO. Wright16780
DA. Smith1765−9
DO. Beckles1704−8
DL. Dobbs15990
MN. Freeman1762−15
MR. McKenzie1706−2
MA. Little1633−2
MJ. Brophy1835−30
FH. Waldock15770
FL. Sillah15090
FRonan Hale1764−13
CG. Ainsworth1765−27
Before kick-off: 26% · 28% · 46%(Accrington ST · draw · Gillingham)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–1 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Accrington ST €158K, Gillingham €220K.
  • League Two: J. Brophy was the highest-rated midfielder (1865).
  • Accrington ST's expected eleven was out of form: average -1.4 over 180 days.
  • Accrington ST were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Accrington ST

15th in League Two · 11 pts from 10

  • 10 OctDOldham 1463
  • 6 OctDSalford City 1438
  • 3 OctWCheltenham 1436
  • 26 SepDSwindon Town 1424
  • 22 SepDSunderland U21 1436

Gillingham

4th in League Two · 16 pts from 10

  • 13 OctWBrighton U21 1577
  • 10 OctWRotherham 1630
  • 3 OctDNewport County 1606
  • 26 SepLYork 1687
  • 22 SepLCambridge United 1513

Season outlook

From the League Two simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Accrington ST11 /1047.80%0%55%24th
Gillingham16 /1070.65%37%<1%3rd
Accrington ST
Gillingham

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: League Two

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

D. Love
D. Love

Accrington ST · +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1507

J. Brophy
J. Brophy

Gillingham · +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1865

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

John Doolan

Coach DNA: direct

Gareth Ainsworth

Coach DNA: direct

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Accrington ST: direct (how John Doolan plays) · Gillingham: balanced profile (how Gareth Ainsworth plays)