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Veikkausliiga · Championship Group - 27

AC Oulu 3–4 HJK Helsinki

Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Raatin stadion, Oulu

AC Oulu crestAC OuluTeam 1337
3–4
Full time
HT 0–2
HJK Helsinki crestHJK HelsinkiTeam 1512

Match story

AC Oulu · draw · HJK Helsinki

Before kick-off: 30% · 28% · 42%

Live chances: AC Oulu 0%, draw 2%, HJK Helsinki 98% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 30%, draw 28%, HJK Helsinki 42%2' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 30%, draw 28%, HJK Helsinki 42%3' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 30%, draw 28%, HJK Helsinki 42%4' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 30%, draw 28%, HJK Helsinki 42%5' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 30%, draw 29%, HJK Helsinki 42%6' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 30%, draw 29%, HJK Helsinki 42%7' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 30%, draw 29%, HJK Helsinki 42%8' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 30%, draw 29%, HJK Helsinki 41%9' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 30%, draw 29%, HJK Helsinki 41%10' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 29%, draw 29%, HJK Helsinki 41%11' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 29%, draw 29%, HJK Helsinki 41%12' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 29%, draw 30%, HJK Helsinki 41%13' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 29%, draw 30%, HJK Helsinki 41%14' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 29%, draw 30%, HJK Helsinki 41%15' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 29%, draw 30%, HJK Helsinki 41%16' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 29%, draw 30%, HJK Helsinki 40%17' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 29%, draw 31%, HJK Helsinki 40%18' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 29%, draw 31%, HJK Helsinki 40%19' · 0–0 · AC Oulu 29%, draw 31%, HJK Helsinki 40%20' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 13%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 65%21' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 13%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 65%22' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 13%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 65%23' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 13%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 65%24' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 13%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 65%25' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 13%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 66%26' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 12%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 66%27' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 12%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 66%28' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 12%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 66%29' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 12%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 66%30' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 12%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 66%31' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 12%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 66%33' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 11%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 66%34' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 11%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 67%35' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 11%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 67%36' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 11%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 67%37' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 11%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 67%39' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 11%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 67%40' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 10%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 67%41' · 0–1 · AC Oulu 10%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 68%42' · 0–2 · AC Oulu 2%, draw 7%, HJK Helsinki 92%43' · 0–2 · AC Oulu 2%, draw 7%, HJK Helsinki 92%44' · 0–2 · AC Oulu 2%, draw 6%, HJK Helsinki 92%45' · 0–2 · AC Oulu 2%, draw 6%, HJK Helsinki 92%HT · 0–2 · AC Oulu 1%, draw 6%, HJK Helsinki 93%47' · 0–2 · AC Oulu 1%, draw 6%, HJK Helsinki 93%48' · 0–2 · AC Oulu 1%, draw 6%, HJK Helsinki 93%49' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 8%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 69%50' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 8%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 70%51' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 8%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 70%52' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 8%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 70%53' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 8%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 70%54' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 7%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 71%55' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 7%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 71%56' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 7%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 71%57' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 7%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 72%58' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 6%, draw 21%, HJK Helsinki 72%59' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 6%, draw 21%, HJK Helsinki 72%60' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 6%, draw 21%, HJK Helsinki 73%61' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 6%, draw 21%, HJK Helsinki 73%62' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 6%, draw 21%, HJK Helsinki 73%63' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 5%, draw 21%, HJK Helsinki 74%64' · 1–2 · AC Oulu 5%, draw 21%, HJK Helsinki 74%65' · 1–3 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 3%, HJK Helsinki 96%66' · 1–3 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 3%, HJK Helsinki 96%67' · 1–3 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 3%, HJK Helsinki 96%68' · 1–3 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 3%, HJK Helsinki 97%69' · 1–3 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 3%, HJK Helsinki 97%70' · 1–3 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 3%, HJK Helsinki 97%71' · 1–3 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 3%, HJK Helsinki 97%72' · 1–3 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 3%, HJK Helsinki 97%73' · 1–3 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 2%, HJK Helsinki 97%74' · 1–3 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 2%, HJK Helsinki 98%75' · 1–3 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 2%, HJK Helsinki 98%76' · 1–3 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 2%, HJK Helsinki 98%77' · 2–3 · AC Oulu 3%, draw 17%, HJK Helsinki 81%78' · 2–3 · AC Oulu 2%, draw 16%, HJK Helsinki 81%79' · 2–3 · AC Oulu 2%, draw 16%, HJK Helsinki 82%80' · 2–3 · AC Oulu 2%, draw 16%, HJK Helsinki 83%81' · 2–3 · AC Oulu 2%, draw 15%, HJK Helsinki 83%82' · 2–3 · AC Oulu 2%, draw 14%, HJK Helsinki 84%83' · 2–3 · AC Oulu 1%, draw 14%, HJK Helsinki 85%84' · 2–3 · AC Oulu 1%, draw 13%, HJK Helsinki 85%85' · 3–3 · AC Oulu 12%, draw 74%, HJK Helsinki 14%86' · 3–3 · AC Oulu 11%, draw 76%, HJK Helsinki 13%87' · 3–3 · AC Oulu 10%, draw 77%, HJK Helsinki 12%88' · 3–4 · AC Oulu 1%, draw 10%, HJK Helsinki 89%89' · 3–4 · AC Oulu 1%, draw 9%, HJK Helsinki 90%90' · 3–4 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 8%, HJK Helsinki 91%90+1' · 3–4 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 7%, HJK Helsinki 92%90+2' · 3–4 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 6%, HJK Helsinki 94%90+3' · 3–4 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 5%, HJK Helsinki 95%90+4' · 3–4 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 4%, HJK Helsinki 96%90+5' · 3–4 · AC Oulu 0%, draw 2%, HJK Helsinki 98%

Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 2% · 98%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave HJK Helsinki 42% to win: they did.

  1. 20'HJK Helsinki:Mads Borchers 1556 +37 assist Leonel Montano 1613 +27
  2. 41'HJK Helsinki:Liam Möller 1469 +29* assist Mads Borchers 1556 +37
  3. 48'AC Oulu:Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo 1333 −3 assist Elias Kallio 1394 −5
  4. 53'AC Oulu:Tuomas Kaukua 1410 −7
  5. 55'AC Oulu:Lamine Ghezali 1425 −11* for Joel lotvonen 1169 0
  6. 64'HJK Helsinki:Mads Borchers 1556 +37 assist Leonel Montano 1613 +27
  7. 68'HJK Helsinki:Joona Veteli 1503 +6 for Liam Möller 1469 +29*
  8. 75'AC Oulu:Roope Riski 1251 −7 for Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo 1333 −3
  9. 75'AC Oulu:Juuso Mäkeläinen 1104 0 for Markus Arsalo 1449 −8
  10. 75'AC Oulu:Adramane Cassama 1377 −1 for Otto Kemppainen 1418 −6
  11. 77'AC Oulu:Roope Riski 1251 −7 assist Rasmus Karjalainen 1406 −22
  12. 79'AC Oulu:Mikko Pitkanen 1396 −8
  13. 80'AC Oulu:Lamine Ghezali 1425 −11*
  14. 84'AC Oulu:Mikko Pitkanen 1396 −8 assist Rasmus Karjalainen 1406 −22
  15. 86'HJK Helsinki:Joona Veteli 1503 +6
  16. 89'HJK Helsinki:Mouhamed Gueye 1431 0 for Pyry Mentu 1603 +22
  17. 89'HJK Helsinki:Kaius Simojoki 1592 0 for Santeri Haarala 1617 +9
  18. 90+4'AC Oulu:Juuso Mäkeläinen 1104 0

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-4-2Formations4-3-3
GMiguel Santos1436−10
DO. Kemppainen1418−6
DM. Pitkänen1396−8
DJ. Pirinen1383−12
DT. Kaukua1410−7
MJ. Lotvonen11690
MM. Arsalo1449−8
MI. Mendolin1374−4
ME. Kallio1394−5
FR. Karjalainen1406−22
FC. Triana1333−3
CM. Isokangas1416−14
GJ. Öst1301+25
DN. Alho1636+3
DM. Bogićević1580+10
DV. Tikkanen1633+8
DL. Montano1613+27
ML. Möller1469+29*
MA. Ring1428+12
MP. Mentu1603+22
FS. Haarala1617+9
FM. Borchers1556+37
FAlfie Cicale1552+13
CJ. Rantanen1629+16
Before kick-off: 30% · 28% · 42%(AC Oulu · draw · HJK Helsinki)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–4 had <1%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: AC Oulu €171K, HJK Helsinki €232K.
  • Style contrast in attacking (Veikkausliiga): AC Oulu ranked #9 of 9, HJK Helsinki #1.
  • HJK Helsinki were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

AC Oulu

5th in Veikkausliiga · 34 pts from 22

  • 8 OctWKuPS 1340
  • 18 SepLInter Turku 1393
  • 12 SepLGnistan 1380
  • 8 SepLVPS 1381
  • 31 AugDSJK 1392

HJK Helsinki

3rd in Veikkausliiga · 37 pts from 22

  • 8 OctWVPS 1506
  • 18 SepDGnistan 1531
  • 13 SepDKuPS 1507
  • 9 SepWInter Turku 1519
  • 31 AugWIlves 1507

Season outlook

From the Veikkausliiga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
AC Oulu37 /2643.30%8%0%6th
HJK Helsinki45 /2654.613%99%0%3rd
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Veikkausliiga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Miguel Santos
Miguel Santos

AC Oulu · +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1446

V. Tikkanen
V. Tikkanen

HJK Helsinki · +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1625

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Mikko Isokangas

Coach DNA: –

Joonas Rantanen

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

AC Oulu: balanced profile (how Mikko Isokangas plays) · HJK Helsinki: possession-based (how Joonas Rantanen plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.