Pro League · Regular Season - 15
Abha vs Al Riyadh
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Abha
Abha host Al Riyadh on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Abha 37%, draw 29%, Al Riyadh 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Abha €698K, Al Riyadh €509K.
- Home advantage makes Abha the favourite here: it adds 2 points to their win chance; Saudi Pro League has one of the three smallest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Abha's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Abha goals first.
- 1–114%
- 2–18%
- 1–08%
- 1–28%
- 0–18%
- 0–07%
- Other scores47%
Team Elo: Abha 1679 · Al Riyadh 1682
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Abha · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1749
Al Riyadh · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Elite) · Elo 1682
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Abha
18th in Saudi Pro League · 3 pts from 11
- 30 OctDAl-Ittihad FC Saudi Pro League1577
- 27 OctLAl-Faisaly FC Saudi Pro League1605
- 24 OctLNEOM Saudi Pro League1646
- 16 OctLAl-Qadisiyah FC Saudi Pro League1651
- 13 SepDAl Diriyah Saudi Pro League1670
Al Riyadh
12th in Saudi Pro League · 12 pts from 11
- 29 OctLAl-Qadisiyah FC Saudi Pro League1687
- 24 OctWAl Taawon Saudi Pro League1656
- 20 OctLAl Diriyah Saudi Pro League1674
- 11 OctDAl-Fayha Saudi Pro League1633
- 13 SepWAl Kholood Saudi Pro League1584
Season outlook
From the Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abha | 3 /11 | 22.7 | 0% | 0% | 77% | 18th |
| Al Riyadh | 12 /11 | 31.8 | 0% | 0% | 20% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Abha: direct · low-volume (how Damir Burić plays) · Al Riyadh: direct (how Mauricio Dulac plays)