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Premiership · Regular Season - 9

Aberdeen 3–1 ST Mirren

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen

Aberdeen crestAberdeenTeam 1693
3–1
Full time
HT 1–1
ST Mirren crestST MirrenTeam 1530

Match story

Aberdeen · draw · ST Mirren

Before kick-off: 55% · 27% · 18%

Live chances: Aberdeen 100%, draw 0%, ST Mirren 0% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · Aberdeen 55%, draw 27%, ST Mirren 18%2' · 0–0 · Aberdeen 55%, draw 27%, ST Mirren 18%3' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 15%, ST Mirren 6%4' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 15%, ST Mirren 6%5' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 15%, ST Mirren 6%6' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 15%, ST Mirren 6%7' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 15%, ST Mirren 6%8' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 15%, ST Mirren 6%9' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%10' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%11' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%12' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%13' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%14' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%16' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%17' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%18' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%19' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%20' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%21' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%22' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%23' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%24' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%25' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%26' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%27' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%28' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%29' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 6%31' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 5%32' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 5%33' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 5%34' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 5%35' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 5%36' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 5%37' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 17%, ST Mirren 5%38' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 17%, ST Mirren 5%39' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 17%, ST Mirren 5%40' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 17%, ST Mirren 5%41' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 17%, ST Mirren 5%42' · 1–0 · Aberdeen 78%, draw 17%, ST Mirren 5%43' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 46%, draw 35%, ST Mirren 19%45' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 45%, draw 36%, ST Mirren 19%45+1' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 45%, draw 36%, ST Mirren 19%45+2' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 44%, draw 37%, ST Mirren 19%HT · 1–1 · Aberdeen 44%, draw 37%, ST Mirren 19%47' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 43%, draw 38%, ST Mirren 19%48' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 43%, draw 38%, ST Mirren 19%49' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 43%, draw 39%, ST Mirren 19%50' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 42%, draw 39%, ST Mirren 19%51' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 42%, draw 40%, ST Mirren 19%52' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 41%, draw 40%, ST Mirren 19%53' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 41%, draw 41%, ST Mirren 19%54' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 40%, draw 41%, ST Mirren 19%55' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 40%, draw 42%, ST Mirren 18%56' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 39%, draw 43%, ST Mirren 18%57' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 39%, draw 43%, ST Mirren 18%58' · 1–1 · Aberdeen 38%, draw 44%, ST Mirren 18%59' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 80%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 3%60' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 81%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 3%61' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 81%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 3%62' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 81%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 3%63' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 81%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 3%64' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 81%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 3%65' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 82%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 3%66' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 82%, draw 16%, ST Mirren 3%67' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 82%, draw 15%, ST Mirren 3%68' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 82%, draw 15%, ST Mirren 2%69' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 83%, draw 15%, ST Mirren 2%70' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 83%, draw 15%, ST Mirren 2%71' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 83%, draw 15%, ST Mirren 2%72' · 2–1 · Aberdeen 83%, draw 14%, ST Mirren 2%73' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 98%, draw 2%, ST Mirren 0%74' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 98%, draw 2%, ST Mirren 0%75' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 98%, draw 1%, ST Mirren 0%76' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 99%, draw 1%, ST Mirren 0%77' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 99%, draw 1%, ST Mirren 0%78' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 99%, draw 1%, ST Mirren 0%79' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 99%, draw 1%, ST Mirren 0%80' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 99%, draw 1%, ST Mirren 0%81' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 99%, draw 1%, ST Mirren 0%82' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 99%, draw 1%, ST Mirren 0%83' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 99%, draw 1%, ST Mirren 0%84' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 99%, draw 1%, ST Mirren 0%85' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 99%, draw 1%, ST Mirren 0%86' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 99%, draw 1%, ST Mirren 0%87' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 100%, draw 0%, ST Mirren 0%88' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 100%, draw 0%, ST Mirren 0%89' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 100%, draw 0%, ST Mirren 0%90' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 100%, draw 0%, ST Mirren 0%90+1' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 100%, draw 0%, ST Mirren 0%90+2' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 100%, draw 0%, ST Mirren 0%90+3' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 100%, draw 0%, ST Mirren 0%90+4' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 100%, draw 0%, ST Mirren 0%90+5' · 3–1 · Aberdeen 100%, draw 0%, ST Mirren 0%

Last reading, 90+5': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Aberdeen 55% to win: they did.

  1. 2'Aberdeen:Brad Lyons 1648 +22 assist Connor Patrick Ronan 1839 +3
  2. 31'ST Mirren:Ryan Carr 1402 0
  3. 42'ST Mirren:Eseosa Sule 1445 0 assist Killian Phillips 1620 −16
  4. 45'Aberdeen:Stuart Armstrong 1666 +1 for Connor Patrick Ronan 1839 +3
  5. 45'Aberdeen:Tony Yogane 1708 +7 for Brad Lyons 1648 +22
  6. 56'ST Mirren:Paul Nsio 1589 −3
  7. 58'Aberdeen:Kevin Nisbet 1812 +24 (penalty missed)
  8. 58'Aberdeen:Kevin Nisbet 1812 +24
  9. 59'ST Mirren:Samuel Antonio Ramos Linares 1182 −8* for Luke Thomas 1621 −4
  10. 67'ST Mirren:Fraser Taylor 1258 0 for Paul Nsio 1589 −3
  11. 71'Aberdeen:Ayoub Mouloua 1421 +17 for Toyosi Olusanya 1689 +3*
  12. 72'Aberdeen:Ayoub Mouloua 1421 +17 assist Afeez Aremu Olalekan 1759 +33
  13. 74'ST Mirren:Jake Young 1545 0 for Eseosa Sule 1445 0
  14. 76'Aberdeen:Emmanuel Gyamfi 1449 −3* for Lewis Smith 1482 +13
  15. 77'Aberdeen:Stuart Armstrong 1666 +1
  16. 90+3'Aberdeen:Findlay Marshall 1450 0 for Kevin Nisbet 1812 +24

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GM. Müller1843+20
DC. Cadden1793+8
DL. Mayo1660+9*
DM. Knoester1788+10
DN. Guinness-Walker1717+40
MC. Ronan1839+3
MA. Aremu1759+33
MLewis Smith1482+13
MT. Olusanya1689+3*
MB. Lyons1648+22
FK. Nisbet1812+24
CS. Robinson1686+29
GJ. Chapman1674−11
DC. Ramsay14700
DM. Fraser1596−8
DA. Gogić1621−9
DD. John1561−5
MR. Carr14020
MP. Nsio1589−3
ML. Thomas1621−4
MK. Phillips1620−16
MIsmeal Kabia1604−4
FEseosa Sule14450
CCraig McLeish1558−3
Before kick-off: 55% · 27% · 18%(Aberdeen · draw · ST Mirren)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–1 had 5%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Aberdeen €500K, ST Mirren €316K.
  • Style contrast in dribbling (Premiership): Aberdeen ranked #2 of 12, ST Mirren #10.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Aberdeen

8th in Premiership · 8 pts from 8

  • 11 OctLST Johnstone 1707
  • 19 SepDHibernian 1737
  • 15 SepWMotherwell 1685
  • 5 SepDKilmarnock 1664
  • 2 SepLCeltic 1685

ST Mirren

7th in Premiership · 10 pts from 8

  • 10 OctLHeart Of Midlothian 1530
  • 19 SepLDundee Utd 1535
  • 9 SepLRangers 1487
  • 5 SepLCeltic 1536
  • 2 SepWKilmarnock 1490

Season outlook

From the Premiership simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Aberdeen8 /841.60%17%16%6th
ST Mirren10 /832.60%1%73%12th
Aberdeen
ST Mirren

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Premiership

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

N. Guinness-Walker
N. Guinness-Walker

Aberdeen · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1677

J. Chapman
J. Chapman

ST Mirren · +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1685

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Stephen Robinson

Coach DNA: direct

Craig McLeish

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Aberdeen: balanced profile (how Stephen Robinson plays) · ST Mirren: direct (how Craig McLeish plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.