Superliga · Regular Season - 10
Aarhus 3–0 Sonderjyske
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Vejlby Stadion, Aarhus
AarhusTeam 1759
SonderjyskeTeam 1614Match story
Aarhus · draw · SonderjyskeBefore kick-off: 55% · 22% · 23%
Last reading, 90+3': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Kristian Arnstad 9'
- Janni Serra 15'
- Frederik Tingager 38'
We gave Aarhus 55% to win: they did.
- Kristian Arnstad 1718 +48*9'
Aarhus:Kristian Arnstad 1718 +48* - Janni Serra 1645 +50* assist Rasmus Carstensen 1898 +21*15'
Aarhus:Janni Serra 1645 +50* assist Rasmus Carstensen 1898 +21* - Frederik Tingager 1878 +18* assist Kristian Arnstad 1718 +48*38'
Aarhus:Frederik Tingager 1878 +18* assist Kristian Arnstad 1718 +48* - 45'Ismaïl Seydi 1597 −8*
Sonderjyske:Ismaïl Seydi 1597 −8* - 45'Stefan Velkov 1662 −2 for Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason 1639 −8*
Sonderjyske:Stefan Velkov 1662 −2 for Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason 1639 −8* - Callum McCowatt 1620 −1* for Frederik Emmery 1729 +6*63'
Aarhus:Callum McCowatt 1620 −1* for Frederik Emmery 1729 +6* - 66'Teodor Berg Haltvik 1419 −8* for Sefer Emini 1612 −8*
Sonderjyske:Teodor Berg Haltvik 1419 −8* for Sefer Emini 1612 −8* - 66'Jacob Christensen 1683 −8* for Mathias Olesen 1831 −11
Sonderjyske:Jacob Christensen 1683 −8* for Mathias Olesen 1831 −11 - Eric Kahl 1872 −6* for Daniel Leo Gretarsson 1722 +1477'
Aarhus:Eric Kahl 1872 −6* for Daniel Leo Gretarsson 1722 +14 - Stefen Tchamche 1454 −3* for Janni Serra 1645 +50*78'
Aarhus:Stefen Tchamche 1454 −3* for Janni Serra 1645 +50* - 81'Bubacarr Tambedou 1673 −8* for Ismaïl Seydi 1597 −8*
Sonderjyske:Bubacarr Tambedou 1673 −8* for Ismaïl Seydi 1597 −8* - 81'Andreas Oggesen 1637 −12* for Anders Raffnsøe Hoeg 1397 −8*
Sonderjyske:Andreas Oggesen 1637 −12* for Anders Raffnsøe Hoeg 1397 −8* - James Bogere 1343 −7* for Tobias Bech Kristensen 1928 +1*90'
Aarhus:James Bogere 1343 −7* for Tobias Bech Kristensen 1928 +1* - Jacob Andersen 1571 −7* for Rasmus Carstensen 1898 +21*90'
Aarhus:Jacob Andersen 1571 −7* for Rasmus Carstensen 1898 +21*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 55% · 22% · 23%(Aarhus · draw · Sonderjyske)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (10%); the result 3–0 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Aarhus €1.3M, Sonderjyske €755K.
- Sonderjyske were without 1 expected starter: E. Duru (1525).
- Style contrast in discipline (Superliga): Aarhus ranked #3 of 11, Sonderjyske #10.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Aarhus
11th in Superliga · 5 pts from 9
- 20 SepDAC Horsens Denmark Superliga1753
- 13 SepLFC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superliga1739
- 5 SepDSilkeborg Denmark Superliga1746
- 2 SepLFC Midtjylland Denmark Superliga1769
- 30 AugLRanders FC Denmark Superliga1747
Sonderjyske
12th in Superliga · 5 pts from 9
- 20 SepWRanders FC Denmark Superliga1554
- 13 SepDLyngby Denmark Superliga1538
- 6 SepLAC Horsens Denmark Superliga1586
- 31 AugLFC Copenhagen Denmark Superliga1591
- 23 AugLFC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superliga1598
Season outlook
From the Superliga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus | 5 /9 | 24.1 | 0% | 1% | 31% | 7th |
| Sonderjyske | 5 /9 | 19.2 | 0% | <1% | 74% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Aarhus · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1875

Sonderjyske · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1529
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Aarhus: balanced profile (how Jakob Bendix Uhd Poulsen plays) · Sonderjyske: balanced profile (how Fatah Abdirahman plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.