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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5

1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Prezero Arena, Sinsheim

1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 HoffenheimTeam 2081
2–3
Full time
HT 1–1
Hamburger SV crestHamburger SVTeam 1962

Match story

1899 Hoffenheim · draw · Hamburger SV

Before kick-off: 50% · 25% · 24%

Live chances: 1899 Hoffenheim 0%, draw 1%, Hamburger SV 99% at 90+6'2' · 0–0 · 1899 Hoffenheim 50%, draw 25%, Hamburger SV 24%3' · 0–0 · 1899 Hoffenheim 50%, draw 25%, Hamburger SV 24%4' · 0–0 · 1899 Hoffenheim 50%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 24%5' · 0–0 · 1899 Hoffenheim 50%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 24%6' · 0–0 · 1899 Hoffenheim 50%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 24%7' · 0–0 · 1899 Hoffenheim 50%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 24%8' · 0–0 · 1899 Hoffenheim 49%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 24%9' · 0–0 · 1899 Hoffenheim 49%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 24%10' · 0–0 · 1899 Hoffenheim 49%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 24%11' · 0–0 · 1899 Hoffenheim 49%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 25%12' · 0–0 · 1899 Hoffenheim 49%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 25%13' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 30%, draw 25%, Hamburger SV 45%14' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 30%, draw 25%, Hamburger SV 45%15' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 29%, draw 25%, Hamburger SV 45%16' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 29%, draw 25%, Hamburger SV 46%17' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 29%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 46%18' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 28%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 46%19' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 28%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 46%20' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 28%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 46%21' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 27%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 47%23' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 27%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 47%24' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 27%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 47%25' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 26%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 48%26' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 26%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 48%27' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 26%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 48%28' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 25%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 48%29' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 25%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 49%30' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 25%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 49%31' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 24%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 49%32' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 24%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 49%33' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 24%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 50%34' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 23%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 50%35' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 23%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 50%36' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 23%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 50%37' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 22%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 51%38' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 22%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 51%39' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 22%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 51%40' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 21%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 52%41' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 21%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 52%42' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 20%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 52%44' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 20%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 53%45' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 19%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 53%45+2' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 19%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 54%45+3' · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 40%, draw 36%, Hamburger SV 24%45+4' · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 40%, draw 36%, Hamburger SV 24%45+5' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 18%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 55%45+6' · 0–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 18%, draw 27%, Hamburger SV 55%45+7' · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 40%, draw 36%, Hamburger SV 24%45+8' · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 40%, draw 36%, Hamburger SV 24%HT · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 40%, draw 36%, Hamburger SV 24%46' · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 40%, draw 36%, Hamburger SV 23%47' · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 40%, draw 37%, Hamburger SV 23%48' · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 40%, draw 37%, Hamburger SV 23%49' · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 39%, draw 38%, Hamburger SV 23%50' · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 39%, draw 38%, Hamburger SV 23%51' · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 38%, draw 39%, Hamburger SV 23%52' · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 38%, draw 39%, Hamburger SV 23%53' · 1–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 37%, draw 40%, Hamburger SV 23%54' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 77%, draw 18%, Hamburger SV 5%55' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 77%, draw 18%, Hamburger SV 5%56' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 78%, draw 18%, Hamburger SV 5%57' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 78%, draw 18%, Hamburger SV 5%58' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 78%, draw 18%, Hamburger SV 5%59' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 78%, draw 17%, Hamburger SV 4%60' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 78%, draw 17%, Hamburger SV 4%61' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 79%, draw 17%, Hamburger SV 4%62' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 79%, draw 17%, Hamburger SV 4%63' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 79%, draw 17%, Hamburger SV 4%64' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 79%, draw 17%, Hamburger SV 4%65' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 80%, draw 17%, Hamburger SV 4%66' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 70%, draw 24%, Hamburger SV 7%67' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 70%, draw 23%, Hamburger SV 7%68' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 71%, draw 23%, Hamburger SV 6%69' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 71%, draw 23%, Hamburger SV 6%70' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 72%, draw 23%, Hamburger SV 6%71' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 72%, draw 22%, Hamburger SV 5%72' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 73%, draw 22%, Hamburger SV 5%73' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 74%, draw 22%, Hamburger SV 5%74' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 74%, draw 21%, Hamburger SV 5%75' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 75%, draw 21%, Hamburger SV 4%76' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 76%, draw 20%, Hamburger SV 4%77' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 76%, draw 20%, Hamburger SV 4%78' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 77%, draw 19%, Hamburger SV 3%79' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 78%, draw 19%, Hamburger SV 3%80' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 79%, draw 18%, Hamburger SV 3%81' · 2–2 · 1899 Hoffenheim 13%, draw 66%, Hamburger SV 20%82' · 2–2 · 1899 Hoffenheim 13%, draw 68%, Hamburger SV 19%83' · 2–1 · 1899 Hoffenheim 81%, draw 16%, Hamburger SV 2%84' · 2–2 · 1899 Hoffenheim 12%, draw 71%, Hamburger SV 17%85' · 2–2 · 1899 Hoffenheim 11%, draw 73%, Hamburger SV 16%86' · 2–2 · 1899 Hoffenheim 10%, draw 74%, Hamburger SV 15%87' · 2–2 · 1899 Hoffenheim 14%, draw 75%, Hamburger SV 10%88' · 2–2 · 1899 Hoffenheim 9%, draw 78%, Hamburger SV 13%89' · 2–2 · 1899 Hoffenheim 8%, draw 80%, Hamburger SV 12%90' · 2–2 · 1899 Hoffenheim 7%, draw 82%, Hamburger SV 11%90+1' · 2–2 · 1899 Hoffenheim 6%, draw 85%, Hamburger SV 9%90+2' · 2–2 · 1899 Hoffenheim 5%, draw 87%, Hamburger SV 8%90+3' · 2–2 · 1899 Hoffenheim 4%, draw 90%, Hamburger SV 6%90+4' · 2–3 · 1899 Hoffenheim 0%, draw 3%, Hamburger SV 97%90+5' · 2–3 · 1899 Hoffenheim 0%, draw 2%, Hamburger SV 98%90+6' · 2–3 · 1899 Hoffenheim 0%, draw 1%, Hamburger SV 99%

Last reading, 90+6': 0% · 1% · 99%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave 1899 Hoffenheim 50% to win: Hamburger SV won.

  1. 12'Hamburger SV:Yussuf Poulsen 1981 +64*
  2. 41'Hamburger SV:Miro Muheim 2047 +42* for Nicolai Remberg 2088 +5*
  3. 45+6'1899 Hoffenheim:Sebastiaan Bornauw 2060 +25* (own goal)
  4. 53'1899 Hoffenheim:Bambasé Conté 1951 0 assist Fisnik Asllani 2148 −8
  5. 55'1899 Hoffenheim:Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior 2097 −16*
  6. 59'Hamburger SV:Otto Emerson Stange 1690 +16* for Yussuf Poulsen 1981 +64*
  7. 63'1899 Hoffenheim:Andrej Kramarić 1999 −15* for Fisnik Asllani 2148 −8
  8. 63'1899 Hoffenheim:Adam Hložek 1983 0 for Tim Lemperle 2114 −14*
  9. 65'1899 Hoffenheim:Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior 2097 −16*
  10. 74'1899 Hoffenheim:Robin Hranáč 2100 −2 for Koki Machida 2183 −21*
  11. 74'1899 Hoffenheim:Alexander Prass 2103 −2 for Adam Daghim 1975 0
  12. 76'Hamburger SV:Alexander Rossing Lelesiit 1523 +6* for Louis Pepe Lemke 1791 +43*
  13. 76'Hamburger SV:Terem Moffi 2023 +6* for Martin Adeline 1913 +32*
  14. 76'Hamburger SV:Kofi Jeremy Amoako 1789 +1* for Albert Sambi Lokonga 2063 +19*
  15. 80'1899 Hoffenheim:Leon Avdullahu 2163 −13
  16. 83'Hamburger SV:Terem Moffi 2023 +6* assist Miro Muheim 2047 +42*
  17. 87'1899 Hoffenheim:Valentin Gendrey 1953 −8* for Bambasé Conté 1951 0
  18. 90+4'Hamburger SV:Miro Muheim 2047 +42*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations3-4-2-1
GO. Baumann2083−19*
DV. Coufal2037−15
DO. Kabak2147−12
DK. Machida2183−21*
DBernardo2097−16*
ML. Avdullahu2163−13
MW. Burger2107−17*
MB. Conté19510
MF. Asllani2148−8
MA. Daghim19750
FT. Lemperle2114−14*
CC. Ilzer2104−25*
GDaniel Heuer Fernandes2045+25*
DW. Omari2082+23*
DS. Bornauw2060+25*
DL. Lemke1791+43*
MN. Capaldo2099+21*
MA. Sambi Lokonga2063+19*
MN. Remberg2088+5*
MD. Møller Wolfe2259+16
MFábio Vieira2135+18*
MM. Adeline1913+32*
FY. Poulsen1981+64*
CM. Polzin2118+47*
Before kick-off: 50% · 25% · 24%(1899 Hoffenheim · draw · Hamburger SV)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 2–3 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: 1899 Hoffenheim €11.6M, Hamburger SV €6.9M.
  • Hamburger SV were without 2 expected starters: A. Grønbæk (2050) and P. Daka (1968).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

1899 Hoffenheim

14th in Bundesliga · 3 pts from 4

  • 20 SepLSC Paderborn 07 2076
  • 17 SepLOFI 2107
  • 12 SepWVfB Stuttgart 2076
  • 5 SepLBorussia Dortmund 2105
  • 29 AugL1. FC Köln 2092

Hamburger SV

16th in Bundesliga · 3 pts from 4

  • 19 SepW1. FC Köln 2056
  • 13 SepLRB Leipzig 2015
  • 6 SepLFSV Mainz 05 2017
  • 29 AugLBorussia Dortmund 1991
  • 24 AugWVerl 1942

Season outlook

From the Bundesliga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
1899 Hoffenheim3 /443.80%3%6%9th
Hamburger SV3 /441.60%2%11%11th
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Bundesliga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Bernardo
Bernardo

1899 Hoffenheim · +1.7 (Good) · Elo 2114

Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira

Hamburger SV · +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 2117

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Christian Ilzer

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Merlin Polzin

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

1899 Hoffenheim: balanced profile (how Christian Ilzer plays) · Hamburger SV: balanced profile (how Merlin Polzin plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.