2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 11
1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UTC · Avnet-Arena, Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg host FC St. Pauli on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (2. Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: 1. FC Magdeburg 38%, draw 29%, FC St. Pauli 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: 1. FC Magdeburg €1.0M, FC St. Pauli €2.7M.
- Home advantage makes 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in dribbling (2. Bundesliga): 1. FC Magdeburg rank #2 of 18, FC St. Pauli #17.
- FC St. Pauli are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. 1. FC Magdeburg goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: 1. FC Magdeburg 1765 · FC St. Pauli 1837
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
1. FC Magdeburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1907
FC St. Pauli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1607
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
1. FC Magdeburg
6th in 2. Bundesliga · 13 pts from 8
- 18 OctLDynamo Dresden Germany 2 Bundesliga1832
- 10 OctWHannover 96 Germany 2 Bundesliga1791
- 18 SepDSpVgg Greuther Fürth Germany 2 Bundesliga1807
- 12 SepW1. FC Kaiserslautern Germany 2 Bundesliga1766
- 6 SepLHertha BSC Germany 2 Bundesliga1782
FC St. Pauli
7th in 2. Bundesliga · 12 pts from 9
- 23 OctDSV Darmstadt 98 Germany 2 Bundesliga1850
- 17 OctDHannover 96 Germany 2 Bundesliga1846
- 11 OctWKarlsruher SC Germany 2 Bundesliga1823
- 20 SepDEnergie Cottbus Germany 2 Bundesliga1822
- 12 SepWVfL Wolfsburg Germany 2 Bundesliga1790
Season outlook
From the 2. Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Magdeburg | 13 /8 | 46.3 | 1% | 12% | 6% | 7th |
| FC St. Pauli | 12 /9 | 49.0 | 1% | 22% | 2% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
1. FC Magdeburg: possession-based · dribble-heavy (how Petrik Sander plays) · FC St. Pauli: balanced profile (how Marcel Rapp plays)