Bundesliga · Regular Season - 9
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 14:30 UTC · RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
1. FC Köln host Bayer Leverkusen on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: 1. FC Köln 18%, draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen 59%.
- Average value of the expected XI: 1. FC Köln €5.0M, Bayer Leverkusen €24.0M.
- Bayer Leverkusen have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. 1. FC Köln goals first.
- 1–111%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–110%
- 0–37%
- 0–07%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 4.3 pts
Team Elo: 1. FC Köln 1957 · Bayer Leverkusen 2290
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
1. FC Köln · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1897
Bayer Leverkusen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2356
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
1. FC Köln
12th in Bundesliga · 7 pts from 6
- 16 OctLEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga1936
- 11 OctWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga1919
- 19 SepLHamburger SV Bundesliga1946
- 12 SepDWerder Bremen Bundesliga1946
- 4 SepLVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga1956
Bayer Leverkusen
4th in Bundesliga · 13 pts from 6
- 22 OctWOFI UEFA Europa League2236
- 18 OctWSC Freiburg Bundesliga2282
- 15 OctWLech Poznan UEFA Europa League2248
- 10 OctWFSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga2262
- 20 SepWRB Leipzig Bundesliga2234
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 7 /6 | 36.8 | 0% | <1% | 29% | 14th |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 13 /6 | 65.1 | 4% | 89% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
1. FC Köln: balanced profile (how Rene Wagner plays) · Bayer Leverkusen: possession-based · low-block (how Carles Martínez plays)